Nearly all of the region is abnormally dry, a precursor stage for drought, or in at least moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor — and higher stages of drought have spread since last week. Severe drought (the third-highest level), or worse, now covers more than 25% of the area, an increase of more than six percentage points since Oct. 13. Extreme drought, the second-highest drought category, has expanded to nearly 1.5%.
High atmospheric pressure will limit rain chances into early next week, but signs are emerging that a wetter weather pattern may develop. Could rain help slow drought’s spread?
While high air pressure will keep skies mostly sunny and rain chances near zero through Sunday, that same high pressure pattern could also keep ground-level ozone concentrations elevated through Saturday. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality expects conditions to improve slightly from Friday, when ozone reached the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” range in parts of the Houston area.
Afternoons will reach the lower to mid-80s across the Houston area, with temperatures near the coast topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight temps will dip into the mid-50s to lower 60s inland and stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast.
Winds could pick up slightly Saturday and Sunday as a weak atmospheric disturbance moves across the region, but the air will remain too dry to support much rain.
Long-range forecast models are offering a welcome hint of rain for drought-strained Southeast Texas, with more moisture possibly moving into the region early next week and setting up a wetter start to November.
Some forecast guidance brings rain toward Southeast Texas as early as Wednesday, but big questions remain about when it arrives and how much reaches the Houston area. Although that makes the signal worth watching, it is too soon to count on rain for trick-or-treaters or know whether it would be enough to ease drought conditions.
For now, the forecast offers a hint of rain, while Southeast Texas remains dry.