San Antonio, Texas — Trump flipped longtime Democratic counties along the Texas-Mexico border in 2024. Now, with illegal crossings down and deportations under scrutiny, new polling shows a complicated political picture ahead of the midterms.
Donald Trump promised to secure the border, and South Texas voters helped send him back to the White House.
Two years later, illegal border crossings have dropped dramatically. But immigration enforcement and deportations are sparking a different political debate ahead of the November midterms.
Republicans are hoping to hold on to the voters who helped Trump win traditionally Democratic counties along the Texas-Mexico border in 2024. Democrats believe the administration’s enforcement tactics could help them win some of those voters back.
Recent surveys by Pew Research Center and the University of Houston show differences in Latino voters’ views on deportations and their preferences in the November elections.
The question is whether border security remains the deciding issue or whether how immigration laws are enforced will influence how South Texans vote.
Immigration takes center stage in Texas elections
In 2024, Trump flipped Webb, Maverick, Starr, Hidalgo and Cameron counties, all of which had supported Democrats in the previous presidential election.
Democratic campaign strategist Christian Archer said immigration was central to those victories.
“This was Trump’s signature issue. This was the Republicans’ signature issue,” Archer said.
He said the president’s promise to stop illegal immigration and remove dangerous criminals initially appealed to voters beyond the Republican Party.
But Archer believes the administration’s immigration enforcement tactics have changed the political conversation.
“What was supposed to be something that was border security has turned into communities living in fear,” Archer said.
He pointed to controversial encounters involving immigration agents in Texas and argued that Republicans have gone further than some voters expected.
Archer also questioned Texas Republicans’ decision to redraw congressional districts after Trump’s success in South Texas.
He believes Republicans relied too heavily on the 2024 election results when deciding how to reshape those districts.
“They looked at the 2024 numbers and said, ‘Whoa, look at how well we did in South Texas,'” Archer said.
But he believes the political landscape has shifted since then.
Archer specifically pointed to competitive congressional races in South Texas, including the campaign involving Democrat Bobby Pulido and the race for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.
Those races could help determine which party controls the U.S. House.
Polls show differences among Latino voters
According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 28 through Oct. 4, 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide said the Trump administration is doing too much when it comes to deporting immigrants living in the country illegally.
The Pew survey found another 22% believe the administration is doing about the right amount, while 14% said it is doing too little.
But Pew Research Center also found that 65% of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 said they would vote for the Republican congressional candidate in their district if the election were held at the time of the survey.
Those findings reflect Latino voters nationwide, not specifically South Texas.
In Texas, a separate survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 52% to 41% among Latino likely voters in the U.S. Senate race.
The University of Houston poll also found Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 53% to 43% among Latino likely voters.
But the same university survey found different results among rural Latino voters.
According to the Hobby School, rural Latino respondents favored Paxton 56% to 24% over Talarico. In the governor’s race, rural Latino respondents favored Abbott over Hinojosa 60% to 36%.
The University of Houston survey was conducted Oct. 10 through Oct. 14 and included 500 Latino likely voters, with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.
Neither survey shows how voters in individual South Texas counties will vote in November.
The polling provides additional context to Archer’s argument that immigration enforcement could affect Republican support. It also shows that opposition to deportation policies does not necessarily translate into support for Democratic candidates.
Border residents are seeing changes
The debate over immigration enforcement isn’t limited to campaign ads and political speeches.
During our recent reporting trip to Roma, Texas, we spoke off camera with a property owner near the Rio Grande.
He told us increased patrols by federal law enforcement agents and Texas Department of Public Safety troopers have made him feel safer on his property.
His account reflects a different experience from the concerns Archer raised about immigration enforcement.
For people living along the border, decisions made in Washington can affect their daily lives, property and sense of security.
Border security also means protecting private property
In Val Verde County, Sheriff Joe Frank Martinez says the debate over border security has become more complicated as federal officials consider where to build physical barriers.
Martinez has raised concerns about proposed border wall construction through private ranches and the Lower Pecos Canyonlands.
He said property owners oppose nothing about securing the border.
“The ranch owners here that are being affected, they’re committed to ensuring that the border is secure,” Martinez said.
He said many are willing to consider alternatives to a physical wall.
“They are open to a common-sense approach, like a virtual fence,” Martinez said.
But he said ranchers worry about barriers that could divide their land and disrupt their operations.
Martinez described proposals that could cut through ranch properties and leave residential communities on the opposite side of a barrier.
He also raised concerns about archaeological sites and ancient rock art in the Lower Pecos region.
According to Martinez, some proposed construction routes could threaten areas inhabited for thousands of years.
He said the federal government has not adequately explained its plans to affected landowners.
“The government is not being transparent with what’s taking place here in the county,” Martinez said.
He said property owners want an opportunity to discuss the proposals before construction moves forward.
Martinez has invited federal officials to visit the region and see the terrain themselves.
“I’ll give them a personal tour myself,” he said.
He questioned whether officials in Washington understand how difficult it would be to build barriers through some of the canyons west of Lake Amistad.
“People that are 2,000 miles away have no idea, have not ever set foot in some of this country here,” Martinez said.
His concerns illustrate a debate that goes beyond whether the border should be secured. Local officials and property owners also question how to achieve that security.
What will South Texas voters decide?
Immigration remains a major issue in the Texas midterms, particularly in congressional districts where Republicans made gains during the last presidential election.
Archer believes the administration’s enforcement tactics could change how some voters view the Republican Party.
But residents, including the property owner we spoke with in Roma, say they feel safer because of the increased law enforcement presence.
And in Val Verde County, Martinez says ranchers want border security without sacrificing their property or the region’s historic landscape.
Pew Research Center’s October findings show that a majority of Latino registered voters nationwide believe the administration is doing too much on deportations. But the research organization also found that many Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 still support Republican congressional candidates.
In Texas, the University of Houston’s October survey found Democratic candidates leading among Latino likely voters statewide, while Republican candidates led among rural Latino respondents.
For some border residents, the priority is stopping illegal crossings and criminal activity. For others, it is how federal agents enforce immigration laws or whether border wall construction could affect their homes and land.
Trump’s immigration promises helped Republicans make historic gains in South Texas in 2024.
In November, voters will decide whether those gains carry over to the midterms.