Daily rain chances in San Antonio in the week leading up to Halloween might sound scary: Will trick-or-treaters get rained out Saturday? Although rain chances become significant by Friday, the forecast from the National Weather Service isn’t all that dark and dreary, particularly for Oct. 31. Here’s a look at what to expect this week:
What’s the forecast for Tuesday?
San Antonio on Tuesday has a good 40% chance of showers in the afternoon, forecasters said. Temperatures during the day will peak somewhere around 80 degrees, give or take a degree, amid stout east-southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph.
With less than 0.1 inch of rainfall likely, rain chances throttle back to 10% at night, when temperatures bottom out around 64 degrees under partly cloudy skies.
“As we saw (this past weekend), all the extra cloud attention we are getting is giving us some relief from the heat and this is expected to continue into the extended forecast,” the weather service said in a forecast bulletin posted online Monday.
Temperatures in San Antonio should stay below 80 degrees all day Tuesday, according to the National Blend of Models, a composite forecast model. (National Blend of Models/Pivotal Weather)
Less of a rain chance Wednesday
San Antonio’s best window for rain on Wednesday will be throughout the afternoon and early evening, with chances at 30% during the day and 20% at nigh. Temperatures, though, are expected to top out at 84 degrees, which would be about 6 degrees warmer than normal, according to weather service data.
A ridge of high atmospheric pressure will be sitting offshore from the Texas Gulf Coast on Wednesday and it will continue steer moisture into South Texas and the Coastal Plains, forecasters said. However, the rain chances will be fairly isolated and higher in Southeast Texas.
Cumulative rainfall is projected to reach almost an inch in San Antonio by Saturday morning, according to the National Blend of Models, a composite forecast model. (National Blend of Models/Pivotal Weather)
Rain chances ramp up Thursday and Friday
“The current model cycle indicates … a large sway towards a wetter environment developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning over western counties and spreading slowly northeast across much of the area through late Friday,” the weather service said.
San Antonio on Thursday has serious 70% chance of showers, with the clouds and rain-cooled air expected to keep afternoon temperatures below 77 degrees. Robust east winds of 5 to 10 mph could include gusts as strong as 20 mph. Rain chances ease slightly to 60% at night.
By Friday, rain chances in the Alamo City still will be up to 50%, with daytime temperatures capped at 78 degrees, forecasters said. Blustery east-southeast winds of 10 mph will pack gusts as strong as 20 mph. Cumulative rainfall amounts over Thursday and Friday could reach or slightly exceed an inch in San Antonio.
What about Halloween?
Weather models continue to lack consensus about the lead-up to Halloween weekend, with one model even indicating a cold front moving through Texas, forecasters said.
“The model blends are therefore favored, and the more likely scenario is continued low-level dry air… to limit the rainfall potential to mainly along and west of I-35 when the shortwave (of low air pressure) pushes through,” the weather service said.
However, the wild card remains the effects from the remnant atmospheric moisture of Tropical Storm Vance, which as of Tuesday was still churning in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the western coast of Mexico.
“Any changes to Vance could also disrupt this weather trend, so the feeling here is that our PoPs (probabilities of precipitation) for this Thursday into Friday should be treated with a degree of skepticism,” the weather service said.
So far, San Antonio on Saturday has a slight 30% chance of showers, with temperatures peaking in the afternoon near 82 degrees and staying above 66 degrees at night.
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This article originally published at Rain chances in San Antonio Tuesday, but will showers spoil Halloween this weekend?.