Even so, the weather pattern will still become more active with an influx of Pacific moisture arriving during the second half of the week. Because of this, off-and-on showers are expected across South-Central Texas, with brief downpours staying possible as well. Here’s a look at when to expect the best chances of rain.
A cool and cloudy morning is expected across the region on Wednesday, with temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s through 9 a.m. A few isolated raindrops are also possible early on, but most areas will stay dry.
During the middle of the day, skies will become partly sunny as temperatures rise into the upper 70s by noon. High temperatures are expected to top out at around 83 degrees, or about 5 degrees above average for late October. Winds will stay light, coming in from the southeast at just 5 to 10 mph.
A few isolated showers and weak storms may develop during the middle of the day. However, overall rain chances in the Alamo City will rise to only 20%. Slightly higher rain chances (30%) are expected to the northeast, including in New Braunfels, San Marcos and Austin.
On Thursday, a plume of Pacific moisture, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance, is likely to move into Texas. While the heaviest rainfall is expected to stay in West Texas, San Antonio will still have about a 50% to 60% chance of showers and storms during the late morning through the afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms will also be possible on Friday, mainly during the first half of the day. Increased cloudiness, along with the possible rainfall, will keep temperatures down. Temperatures are likely to top out in the upper 70s both Thursday and Friday.
Overall rainfall totals are likely to stay relatively low because the main axis of heavy rainfall will be about 250 miles to the northwest. According to the National Blend of Models, much of South-Central Texas is projected to see between a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain. Isolated higher amounts are possible, especially in the Hill Country.
Halloween forecast: Most of the rainfall will move away from the region by Halloween, leaving only a 10% to 20% chance of a scattered shower during the afternoon and evening. The trick-or-treating forecast is looking good, as peak daytime temperatures in the lower 80s will cool down into the 70s after sunset.
Next cold front? Forecast models show that a cold front is likely to push through the region early next week, likely late Monday night to early Tuesday morning. The front will pull afternoon temperatures back down into the 70s by Tuesday, with mornings returning to the 50s.
The front may also bring a chance of thunderstorms late Monday night. As of now, overall rain chances with this front will be near 30%, but a high degree of uncertainty remains about storm coverage and timing.