North Texas controls its own destiny to reach the American Conference championship game, which will likely serve as a play-in game for the College Football Playoff.
The American champion is expected to be ranked the highest among Group of Five programs and earn an automatic bid to the 12-team field.
After USF — the one team UNT lost to this season — fell to Navy Saturday, it put the Mean Green in the driver’s seat of the conference.
Here is a breakdown of UNT’s American championship game scenarios.
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Teams in contention
Four teams are in contention for two spots in the American championship game. That field could expand to include two-loss teams if more than two of the teams tied for first place lose one more conference game this season.
But most of the teams tied for the top of the conference are already past the toughest stretches of their schedule, so it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if four finished with one loss in American Conference play.
Here are the current conference records for those teams:
Navy: 6-1
Tulane: 5-1
North Texas: 5-1
East Carolina: 5-1
Navy still has to play Memphis and Army, but this year’s Army-Navy game counts as a nonconference game. Tulane still has to play Temple and Charlotte. ECU still has to play UTSA and Florida Atlantic. UNT still has to play Rice and Temple, which are 2-4 and 3-3 in American Conference play, respectively.
If two teams are tied with 7-1 conference records, those two teams would be in the championship game. However, if three or more are tied, the conference would turn to tiebreakers to determine who gets to compete for a spot in the CFP.
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American Conference tiebreakers
The American Conference first looks at head-to-head results. Since no one team between Navy, Tulane, North Texas and East Carolina defeated the other three teams, the head-to-head results would not be sufficient to resolve the tie.
Therefore, the conference would look to CFP Selection Committee rankings to differentiate the teams.
If there are multiple tied teams ranked in the latest available CFP rankings, the highest-ranked teams that win in the final weekend of the regular season will be championship game participants.
If none of the ranked teams win in the final weekend of the regular season — or if not enough or no teams are ranked in the CFP rankings going into the final weekend of the regular season — a composite average of Connolly SP+, SportsSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR and KPI after all games conclude the final weekend will determine the championship game participants.
What this means for UNT
The weekly College Football Playoff rankings are released Tuesday evening, so that will provide a better picture of which teams could earn spots in the American championship. Last week’s rankings featured just one American team — No. 24 USF, which will likely drop out after losing this week.
North Texas ranked No. 22 and Tulane ranked No. 24 in Sunday’s AP poll. If those two teams were ranked in the CFP rankings next week ahead of the final weekend of the regular season and both teams win their final games, they would be the two teams in the championship.
North Texas is expected to be ranked in the College Football Playoff poll this week, and as long as the Mean Green keep winning, their spot in the American Conference championship should be secure.
Who will host?
The American Conference doesn’t play its championship game at a neutral site. The team ranked higher in the final CFP rankings that doesn’t lose the final week of the regular season will host.
If only one participant is ranked and loses the final week of the regular season or if neither team is ranked, a composite average of Connolly SP+, SportsSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR and KPI after all games conclude the final weekend will determine the host.
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