November 25, 2025
Texas service sector activity retreats slightly
Texas service sector activity contracted in November, though at a slower pace than in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, ticked up four points but remained in negative territory at -2.5.
Labor market measures suggested growth in employment, though hours worked were largely unchanged this month. The employment index moved up nine points to 3.1, its highest reading since November 2024. Meanwhile, both the part-time employment index and the hours worked index held steady at near-zero readings, suggesting little change in part-time employment or the length of workweeks in November.
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened, though pessimism waned somewhat. The general business activity index ticked up seven points to -2.3. The company outlook index also edged up, increasing to -4.2 from -10.0 in October. The outlook uncertainty index fell four points to 18.2 but remained well above the series average of 13.8.
Price and wage growth accelerated in November. The input prices index edged up five points to 27.6, and the selling prices index increased slightly to 6.5 from 4.6 in October. The wages and benefits index rose four points to 14.7.
Respondents’ expectations regarding future service sector activity remained positive. The future revenue index was little changed at 34.0, while the future general business activity index advanced seven points to 13.0. Other future service sector activity indexes, such as employment and capital expenditures, remained in solidly positive territory.
November 25, 2025
Texas retail sales fall
Retail sales dipped in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Retail Outlook Survey. The sales index, a key measure of state retail activity, remained negative but increased 17 points to -6.3. Retailers’ inventories increased, with the index rising seven points to 7.4
Labor market indicators suggested growth in employment this month. The employment index jumped 19 points to 3.5, and the part-time employment index also rose sharply to 6.8 from -3.2 in October. Both readings were higher than their respective series averages. Meanwhile, the hours worked index held steady with a reading of -7.7, suggesting a similar contraction in hours worked as last month.
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened, and uncertainty in outlooks increased. The general business activity index jumped up 11 points to -12.6, while the company outlook index edged up ten points to -12.4. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index fell to 13.2 from 17.3 in October, remaining above its series average of 11.7.
Wage pressures eased this month, while price pressures were little changed. The input prices index dipped three points to 27.8 but remained above the series average of 22.6. The wages and benefits index also fell to 6.1 from 13.3 in October. Meanwhile, the selling prices index was little changed at 16.2.
Expectations for future retail activity remained positive in November. The future sales index was positive but plunged 16 points to 6.9. Meanwhile, the future general business activity index came in at 4.1, similar to October. Other future retail activity indexes, such as employment and capital expenditures, remained in positive territory.
The Texas Retail Outlook Survey is a component of the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey that uses information only from respondents in the retail and wholesale sectors.
Next release: December 30, 2025
Data were collected Nov. 10–18, and 246 of the 346 Texas service sector business executives surveyed submitted responses. The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s service sector activity. Firms are asked whether revenue, employment, prices, general business activity and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.