The odds are that the No. 16 Texas Longhorns won’t make the College Football Playoff, but their goal is to have the CFP selection committee tell them why not after netting a third win over a top-10 team in their regular-season finale.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) rushes into the end zone to score in the third quarter of the Longhorns’ game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Nov. 22, 2025.
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman
No team has accomplished that feat since the 2019 national champion LSU Tigers. It’s Texas’ mission against the No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies.
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American-Statesman columnist Cedric Golden and the Houston Chronicle’s Kirk Bohls examine the Texas-Texas A&M matchup and address other major storylines this week in college football.
MORE CEDDY: Will Texas football fix defensive issues in time for No. 3 Texas A&M?
Will Texas get a CFP bid if it beats Texas A&M?
Golden: Doubtful. The Swamp drowning in Gainesville absolutely murdered their chances of getting in. Even with a win over an 11-0 team ranked third in the country — which would give the Horns three wins over top-10 opponents — too many dominoes have to fall for them to curry enough favor with the selection committee to become the first three-loss, nonconference champion to quality for the CFP. I expect they will give the Aggies a spirited battle, but Texas A&M is too battle-tested and too solid at key positions to allow what would be an historic 12-0 season to fall by the wayside. I’m taking the Aggies to win a shootout, 34-31.
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Bohls: I’ll say yes. Remember, the playoff is essentially a television show at its heart, and there are fewer bigger brands than the Longhorns. And they’d deserve it with a third win over a top-10 team and the guts to play an Ohio State instead of a directional school. Alas, it won’t matter because the Aggies have too much momentum, too much balance on both sides of the ball and too much at stake and will walk out of Royal-Memorial Stadium with a 34-31 win. Sorry, Longhorn fans.
Texas A&M wide receiver KC Concepcion (7) carries the ball for a touchdown against LSU in the second half Oct. 25, 2025 in Baton Rouge, La.
Gerald Herbert/Associated PressWhat Texas A&M player besides Marcel Reed or Cashius Howell should Texas be most concerned about?
Golden: I’m not sure if A&M wideout KC Concepcion is related to Dave Concepcion, the spectacular Venezuelan shortstop for Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine of the 1970s, but he has been a highlight reel after spending the last two years at North Carolina State. He’s had a case of the dropsies lately, but remains one of the scariest big-play threats in the receiving game — 22 of his 52 catches have been for 30-plus yards — as well as special teams where he ranks fourth nationally at 20.95 yards per punt return.
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Bohls: I’d go with Concepcion, a dynamic slot receiver who will likely be an All-American as an all-purpose player. He’s as electric as Texas’ Ryan Niblett as a punt returner and as strong an alpha receiver as teammate Mario Craver. Covering both will be a huge challenge for the Longhorns.
Name one factor where Texas has the biggest edge.
Golden: Besides 100,000 desperate human beings who will pack DKR and hopefully make it a den of horrors for the visitors, it has to be turnover margin. The Longhorns rank second in the category among SEC teams at plus-10 (18 takeaways, eight giveaways) while the Aggies are 14th among 16 teams at minus-five (nine and 14). If QB Arch Manning takes care of the ball and the Horns coax a couple of miscues from the favored Aggies, anything can happen.
Bohls: That’d be in the turnover department. The Longhorns are 10th in the nation with a plus-10 turnover rate while the Aggies are a minus-five. Problem is you can’t always rely on takeaways. They’re just not as reliable a stat as rushing offense or penalties.
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Should Steve Sarkisian go after Chip Kelly as his new offensive coordinator?
Golden: I don’t see it because Sarkisian is an alpha dog play-caller and there isn’t room for two unless he pulls a 180 and embraces the role of being more of a CEO, which would free him up to devote more time to other problem areas. The guess here is Sarkisian will call the plays in 2026, which will be Manning’s final college season. If Manning continues his ascent, I don’t see Sark wanting to share the credit with a newcomer.
Bohls: Heck yeah. Even if Sarkisian won’t give up play-calling duties — and he won’t — the former Raiders OC and Buckeyes play-caller would be a valuable addition to the Texas staff. And don’t forget the Horns face Ohio State again Sept. 12 in 2026.
Who’s the best defensive player in college football?
Golden: Not to bring up painful memories, Longhorn Nation, but Ohio State’s Caleb Downs is a big play waiting to happen. The man who blew up Texas’ ill-fated toss sweep at the end of last season’s CFP semifinal win is the latest in a long line of great safeties to come out of Buckeye Nation in the tradition of big names like Jack Tatum, Mike Doss, Antoine Winfield, Malcolm Jenkins and Malik Hooker.
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Bohls: Give me Jacob Rodriguez. The Texas Tech linebacker has been a real force behind the best defense in school history. His 100 tackles rank seventh nationally among Power Four defenders and he leads the country with seven forced fumbles. Counting his three last year, this guy has forced 10 fumbles over that span. Plus he has four interceptions and a sack.
TEXAS VS. TEXAS A&M: Quarterbacks face SEC’s elite pass rushers
Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin speaks to the media July 14, 2025 during SEC Media Day at Omni Atlanta Hotel.
Jordan Godfree/Imagn Images
Will Lane Kiffin remain Ole Miss’ coach after the Egg Bowl?
Golden: If he was staying, he would have announced it by now. Dude’s leaving. Kiffin could build a champion in Oxford, but I believe he’s about to take over at LSU — if that nosy governor gets back to working in politics. The Bayou Bengals are a sleeping giant. They’re still a destination program for blue-chip athletes because the locals aren’t afraid to cut a fat check to do what’s necessary to win. It would be cool see if Kiffin can get it done in his present locale, but methinks the moving trucks will be back into his driveway soon.
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Bohls: Who knows? Who cares? Isn’t this the most tiresome story in the nation? I bet he stays in Oxford. If not, he’s the cruelest guy in the game this side of college manipulater Jimmy Sexton for constantly expressing his love for the Rebels at the same time he’s the team’s biggest distraction and is courting other offers.
What team outside the top 12 will make the CFP?
Golden: Keep your eyes peeled for the No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers. The 9-2 Cavs have won eight of their last nine and are tied with SMU atop the ACC and if they defeat 10-point underdog Virginia Tech in Charlottesville, they will clinch a spot in the title game. A win there will earn the conference’s automatic bid to the tournament. Easy, peasy.
Bohls: I’ll go with a 10-2 Vanderbilt team after the Commodores beat Tennessee and benefits from losses by Miami and BYU. Doesn’t Diego Pavia belong in the playoffs for his star power?
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What team inside the top 12 will miss the CFP?
Golden: At 9-2, No. 12 Miami has to be perfect to get in and I don’t see it happening. The Hurricanes will likely have to win at No. 22 Pitt and then probably beat Virginia in the ACC title game. They’ve been good lately, but it’s a lot to ask. If they lose either game, that would be a third loss and likely CFP death.
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Bohls: I’ll say Oklahoma after it gets stunned by LSU this weekend. That would be a colossal upset, but there really haven’t been that many shockers this season. We’re due a couple.
Pick a top 25 upset.
Golden: My last answer will serve as a tease. Give me the Pitt Panthers to beat Miami 44-37.
Bohls: I’ve got the Mississippi State Bulldogs taking down Ole Miss 31-28 with cowbells a-clanging and Lane Kiffin crying all the way to the bank.
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Which head coach has gotten stale at his job and could use a change of scenery?
Golden: Iowa State’s Matt Campbell waited around for the perfect gig to show up and that time may have passed. He’s still a solid coach who will keep the Cyclones competitive, but it would be cool to see him embrace a new challenge elsewhere. He has some giant killer in him.
Bohls: There’s a bunch. But I’ll suggest Dabo Swinney could use a new address to jump-start his career.
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