The sun is setting on playoff hopes for Texas football, Unless something entirely unexpected happens, the Longhorns won’t be a part of the most-lit party winter party in college sports.
Note to Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte: If your 9-3 gridiron machine is left out of the College Football Playoff, you will have to adjust your way of doing business.
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Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian walks the field during the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Most important is getting rid of unnecessary marquee nonconference matchups. The need for August gut-checks is no more. Yes, those games are pleasing to the early-season eye, but when your program is left banging on a locked CFP door in December and you can hear party music playing inside, the message is clear: You weren’t invited.
The fun starts Dec. 19 and from most indications, it won’t include the Horns.
Let’s commend No. 16 Texas for bringing some spice to the August/September schedule over the last three years with games against Alabama, Michigan and Ohio State playing to packed stadiums and large viewing audiences — but the time has come for the program to join their SEC brethren in Cupcakeville.
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That’s the home of uninteresting-but-necessary beatdowns over helpless FCS opponents who show up to your stadium once a year, take a 50-point pasting and leave town with a fat check that will fund all sports at their smaller university.
The Horns could use a few of those moving forward. They have home games against Ohio State and Michigan slated for the next two seasons, respectively, followed by a home-and-home series with Notre Dame in 2028 and 2029. Those three programs have either won or played in a national championship game the last three seasons.
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Texas athletic director Chris del Conte walks the sideline during the game against Vanderbilt at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025 in Austin.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
If I’m Del Conte, I’d do whatever was necessary to cancel those four games and get Savannah State, Bethune-Cookman, The Citadel and the team from Fansville on the horn. Pay any penalties needed for inconveniencing those fellow blue bloods, shake hands and give a respectful nod to let them know it isn’t personal, it’s just smart business.
Those early nonconference showdowns had their place back in the day, but in the current CFP era, they come with an unnecessary risk. In 2025, it’s all about qualifying for the tournament, and that far outweighs being the king of the hill for one weekend in September.
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In case you’re wondering, Del Conte wanted no part of this discussion when we spoke by phone Sunday morning, declining comment on anything regarding marquee opponents. Expect him to speak on everything CFP after championship weekend when all the smoke has cleared.
Longhorns are rising, but it may be too late
With quarterback Arch Manning leading the way, the Longhorns finished the regular season Friday with a resounding 27-17 statement win over No.3 and 11-0 Texas A&M to highlight a campaign that included wins over three top-10 opponents. Yet they sit on the outside of the 12-team CFP bracket looking in.
The 14-7 season-opening road loss to Ohio State earned the program respect from all corners of the country because the Horns were oh-so-close to beating a defending national champion on the road for the second straight year, but they returned to Austin as an 0-1 team.
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Yes, the unimaginable 29-21 loss at Florida — which finished a horrid 4-8 — in the SEC opener remains the biggest blemish on their CFP resumé, but it wouldn’t be as big of an issue had the Horns scheduled a less formidable opponent in nonconference instead of the Buckeyes.
We’ll find out Tuesday if the selection committee will reward Texas for having the stones to schedule Ohio State, but don’t hold your breath. To expect them to leapfrog several teams to get to No. 10 — the ACC and Group of Five champions will get automatic bids, so it’s 10 or bust — feels like a pipe dream after Saturday’s games didn’t go Texas’ way.
“Do you want us to not schedule Ohio State?” said coach Steve Sarkisian, who believes a playoff without this Texas team would be a disservice to the sport. “Because if we’re a 10-2 team right now, this isn’t a discussion (and) we’re in the playoff. But we were willing to go up there and play that game.”
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We would not only be looking at a 10-2 Texas, but a Texas with a 3-2 record against teams that are/were in the top 10. That’s arguably the best CFP case of any three-loss team in playoff history.
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Under the current format, the reward is great with a win over a big program in nonconference, but the risk is potentially crippling, reason being there isn’t a lot of wiggle room for the rest of the season. Had they not played Ohio State, the Horns could have eaten that Florida loss, lost at Georgia and still have been in the running to host a first-round game in three weeks after the win over the Aggies.
It’s not their reality. The numbers suggest they’re likely headed to the Citrus Bowl for a nice SEC-Big Ten matchup with 2023 national champ Michigan though in present day, the Citrus nectar doesn’t taste as sweet because it isn’t the CFP.
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Horns got very little help Saturday
After Saturday’s games, the Longhorns went from hopeful to near helpless. The Horns needed:
• A Pittsburgh win over Miami (The Canes cruised).
• A Central Florida win over BYU (The Cougars opened a holy can).
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• A Tennessee win over Vanderbilt (Dores QB Diego Pavia made the Vols his Heisman audition tape).
• An LSU win over Oklahoma (The Bayou Bengals could have used Lane Kiffin).
• An Auburn win over Alabama (The Tide didn’t Roll, but they earned win No. 10).
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It’s not baseball season, but that was an 0-for-5 showing — aka the collar — if you’re scoring at home. Of particular brutality was LSU gift-wrapping the Sooners a late 58-yard touchdown on a busted coverage play to blow a 13-10 lead in the final four minutes; OU basically punched its first CFP ticket under coach Brent Venables with a 10-2 finish. Yeah, the same OU that Texas held without a touchdown for the second straight meeting.
Vanderbilt also finished 10-2. Yeah, the same Vandy that Texas was mashing 34-10 before a late comeback fell short. Can’t help but wonder how the Commodores or Sooners would have fared in Columbus in Week 1.
This isn’t to disparage any other SEC school that’s playing noncompetitive games, but to commend them for seeing where this thing is going. SEC athletic directors figured out a long time ago there’s no need to lose the December war by engaging in a nonsensical battle in late August. Now that Texas occupies a space in the biggest minefield in all of college football, playing a traditional power early is no longer necessary with the knowledge the creme de la creme will meet up in the bracket somewhere. Still doesn’t excuse the no show at The Swamp.
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The SEC will go to a new nine-game conference schedule format starting next season. That will change some scheduling strategy, but don’t expect the cupcakes to disappear. They’re a vital part of this tried and true business model.
Until the NCAA adds teams — Jan. 23 is the deadline for an expansion decision — games like Texas-Ohio State, while entertaining, will come at considerable cost to the loser in most cases.
This is no longer a winning strategy. It’s past time for Texas to change with the times.
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