Cowboys can secure NFC No. 1 overall seed if not-so-crazy scenario plays out

Heading into their Week 10 bye, the Dallas Cowboys were sitting at 3-5-1 and their playoff hopes were on life support. However, a lot of things have changed over the past three weeks: The Cowboys have now won three in a row heading into their Thursday night showdown with the Detroit Lions and thanks to that winning streak, they’re now VERY much in the NFC playoff race. 

At 6-5-1, everything is currently on the table for the Cowboys: They could get in the playoffs as a wild card, they could get in as a division winner and in one wild scenario, they could even get in the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. That’s right, if everything (and we mean everything) goes the Cowboys’ way over the final five weeks of the season, they could steal the top seed in the NFC. 

Here’s what would have to happen down the stretch for the Cowboys to pull that off. First, the obvious part is that Dallas has to win out against a schedule that looks like this: at Lions, Vikings, Chargers, at Commanders and at Giants. If they can pull off the upset on Thursday, they’ll only face one more team that is currently above .500 and that game will be at home, so winning out isn’t crazy if Dallas can somehow pull off an upset in Detroit. 

Now, let’s take a look at the rest of the NFC: 

Remaining schedule: at Packers (Loss), Browns (Win), Packers (Loss), at 49ers (Win), Lions (Loss)
What Cowboys need: In the Cowboys’ dream scenario, the Bears would go 2-3 over their final five games, with the wins coming against the Browns and 49ers. The Bears are an underdog to Green Bay this week, so it’s not out of the question that they get swept by the Packers. Also, they’ll be facing a Lions team in Week 18 that destroyed them, 52-21, back in Week 2. Basically, what the Cowboys need here isn’t all that crazy. 

Remaining schedule: at Cardinals (Win), Lions (Loss), at Seahawks (Loss), at Falcons (Win), Cardinals (Win)
What Cowboys need: The Cowboys need the Rams to go 2-3 over their final five games, which is somewhat doable. For that to happen, the Cardinals would need to split with the Rams, which is something that has happened in two of the past three seasons. In this scenario, the Rams would beat the Cardinals once and beat the Falcons and lose their other three games. Matthew Stafford has lost his last two games against the Lions, so a loss to Detroit is within the realm of possibility. And the Rams losing to the Seahawks could definitely happen as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t throw four interceptions as he did in their first meeting.

Remaining schedule: at Chargers (Loss), Raiders (Win), at Commanders (Win), at Bills (Loss), Commanders (Win). 
What Cowboys need: The Eagles are going to be favored big against the Raiders and Commanders, so we’ll just give them the wins in those three games. If that happens, the Eagles have to lose to the Chargers and the Bills for Dallas’ division title dreams to stay alive. Both games are on the road for Philly, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them go down in both games. 

Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

Remaining schedule: at Falcons (Win), Colts (Loss), Rams (Win), at Panthers (Loss), 49ers (Loss)
What Cowboys need: The Cowboys will definitely need some help here, but it’s not impossible. The Seahawks are 2-2 this season when they give up more than 100 yards rushing, so if the Colts get Jonathan Taylor going, Indy could certainly pull off an upset there. In the Carolina game, the Panthers just pulled off a home upset against the Rams, and their game against Seattle will also be at home, so they’ll likely be confident going into that. The Cowboys will also need the 49ers to beat Seattle, which is something they’ve already done once this season. 

Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

Remaining schedule: Bears (Win), at Broncos (Loss), at Bears (Win), Ravens (Loss), at Vikings (Loss)
What Cowboys need: The Cowboys need the Packers to sweep the Bears, which comes with one downside, that will allow Green Bay to clinch the conference record tiebreaker over the Cowboys (No one would win the head-to-head tiebreaker since these two teams TIED back in Week 4). Since the Packers have the conference record tiebreaker, they’d need to finish 10-6-1, meaning they’d have to lose all their non-Chicago games. The Ravens and Vikings games might be a stretch, but not impossible. Lamar Jackson is 25-3 as a starter against NFC teams and the Vikings have won three of their past five against the Packers. 

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

Remaining schedule: BYE, Titans (Win), at Colts (Loss), Bears (Loss), Seahawks (Win)
What Cowboys need: The game against the Titans seems like a layup for the 49ers, so we’ll give them that one. In Week 16, they have to travel to Indianapolis, where the Colts are 6-1 this year, so it’s certainly a game the 49ers could lose. The final two games will be huge no matter what, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the 49ers go 1-1 over the final two weeks. If that happens, the Cowboys will need that one win to be against the Seahawks to keep their dream scenario alive. 

Detroit Lions (7-5)

Remaining schedule: Cowboys (Loss), at Rams (Win), Steelers Win), Vikings (Win), at Bears (Win)
What Cowboys need: The Cowboys need to beat the Lions on Thursday for their crazy No. 1 seed scenario to stay alive, but after that, they’re going to need Detroit’s help. The Lions have to beat the Rams in Week 15 and then close the season with a win over the Bears. Detroit also has two games against the Steelers and the Vikings, which won’t matter to the Cowboys but will matter very much to Detroit. If Dallas’ dream scenario plays out, then the Lions will WIN THE NFC NORTH if they beat both the Vikings and Steelers. If they slip up in either game, then they’ll miss the playoffs. The Lions will almost certainly be favored in both games, so we’ll give them the two wins. 

Note: We’re going to ignore the NFC South and assume it ends up being a one-bid division where no one gets to 11 wins. 

If all of the above plays out, here’s what the final NFC playoff seedings will look like: 

FINAL NFC STANDINGS
1. Cowboys (11-5-1): NFC East champion
2. 49ers (11-6): NFC West champion
3. Lions (11-6): NFC North champion
4. Buccaneers (10-7): NFC South champion
5. Eagles (11-6): Wild Card 1
6. Bears (11-6): Wild Card 2
7. Rams (11-6): Wild Card 3

And there you go, that is the wild scenario that would give the Cowboys the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Although this would be the Cowboys’ dream scenario, it would be a nightmare for the Seahawks, who would be left out of the postseason with an 11-6 record (in this scenario, the Seahawks would get in if the Lions were to lose to the Steelers or the Vikings).