Aurora Innovation (NVDA) is back in the spotlight after expanding its Texas operations with a second autonomous truck route. This builds on 100,000 driverless miles and promises cheaper, higher performing next generation hardware.
See our latest analysis for Aurora Innovation.
Even with the Texas expansion and a recent 13 percent surge on upbeat sentiment around growth and rates, Aurora’s 1 year total shareholder return of negative 43 percent and weak year to date share price return suggest momentum is still rebuilding from a volatile base.
If this kind of autonomy story has your attention, it is worth seeing what else is emerging in the space by exploring high growth tech and AI stocks.
With revenue still tiny and losses heavy, yet the share price trading at roughly half of analyst targets, investors face a crossroads: is Aurora an underappreciated autonomy leader, or is it already priced for flawless future execution?
Aurora Innovation last closed at $4.46, with the stock trading on a 3.8x price to book ratio that signals a premium to the wider software sector but a discount to its closest peers.
Price to book compares a company’s market value with the net assets on its balance sheet. This can be a useful lens for pre profit, asset light software and autonomy names where traditional earnings multiples do not yet apply.
For Aurora, paying 3.8 times book value suggests investors are already assigning meaningful value to its self driving platform and future revenue ramp. This is occurring even though the business remains loss making and is not expected to turn profitable within the next three years.
Compared with the broader US software industry average of 3.4x, Aurora looks slightly expensive. Yet against a peer group trading around 14x book, the same 3.8x multiple looks aggressively discounted, hinting that the market remains cautious about converting its high growth forecasts into durable returns.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Result: Price to book of 3.8x (ABOUT RIGHT)
However, significant execution risk around scaling revenue from just $2 million, as well as sustaining funding amid heavy $803 million losses, could quickly challenge the bullish case.
Find out about the key risks to this Aurora Innovation narrative.
While a 3.8x price to book multiple presents Aurora as only moderately valued, our DCF model indicates that the shares are trading about 28 percent below an estimated fair value of roughly $6.23. If cash flows eventually align with the growth story, is the market being too cautious?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
AUR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Aurora Innovation for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 907 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized view in minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Aurora Innovation research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Do not stop with a single autonomy story. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover focused opportunities that match your style before the crowd catches on.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AUR.
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