The Texas Rangers have missed the postseason in each of the last two seasons after their World Series run. They’ll now proceed into the offseason with a to-do list to buck that trend.
Their free agency decisions — both internal and external — will help determine that. We’ll break down the club’s pitching outlook this week. Today’s topic: high-leverage bullpen arms.
Overview: The Rangers cycled through three closers (Luke Jackson, Robert Garcia and Shawn Armstrong) last season after they proceeded into the year without an established ninth-inning option. It resulted in a bullpen that converted just 56% of its save opportunities — the sixth-worst margin in baseball — and became overtaxed late in the season.
Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said at the club’s end-of-year news conference earlier this month that it was “too early” to determine whether they’d pursue an established closer this winter.
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“We didn’t have necessarily a bona fide closer this year,” Young said, “and certainly there where times where we lost games late in the game … We’re going to have to pick and choose what are the most impactful positions to fill with the resources we have.”
The Rangers will need to rebuild their bullpen regardless. They did so in a cost-effective way last winter and likely won’t break the bank this offseason with a payroll that’s expected to shrink to some degree.
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The big fish: Ryan Helsley. He saved 49 games and recorded a 2.04 ERA with the St. Louis Cardinals two seasons ago and was among the top closers dealt at this summer’s trade deadline. His 99 mph fastball would give the Texas bullpen a caliber of velocity that it lacked at times this season and, most importantly, offer it a surefire closer.
His post-deadline tenure with the New York Mets (a 7.20 ERA in 22 games) might knock the 31-year-old down a peg or two on the free agent leaderboard with Edwin Diaz and Robert Suarez each potentially available if both opt out of their contracts. He’d still likely cost the Rangers more than $10 million per season, though, and the club hasn’t ever paid that kind of money to a free agent reliever. Helsley said that he’d “be willing” to listen to all interested teams.
Diaz signed the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher three years ago and, if he opts out, could garner a similar high-dollar deal and price himself out of the Rangers’ range. Suarez, a 34-year-old right-hander and an All-Star in each of the last two seasons, can also opt out and cash in.
The middle man: Devin Williams. His exact market value is difficult to sus out. He was a premier high-leverage arm for the Milwaukee Brewers but fell off of a cliff in his first season with the New York Yankees this year. Williams yielded a 1.93 ERA or better between 2022-24 but was a net negative after the Yankees acquired him last winter. His -0.3 WAR and 4.79 ERA, per FanGraphs, were both the worst of his career.
The contract that Williams earns this winter may be dictated by whether clubs view his stint with the Yankees as an outlier blip or the start of decline. The volatility of relief pitchers suggests that either could be a reality. His $5.7 million average annual value, per Spotrac, is similar to what the Rangers paid veteran right-hander Chris Martin last season. Williams (30) is younger; Martin had been a plus arm in the four seasons prior to his Texas return.
The value pick: Jordan Romano. Consider this the buy-low option after the two-time All-Star’s career-worst season with the Philadelphia Phillies this year. He posted a -0.7 WAR, per Baseball Reference, and a gruesome 8.23 ERA in 49 games.
The right-hander saved the fourth-most games leaguewide and yielded a 2.37 ERA between 2021-23 before an elbow injury derailed him two years ago. His fastball and slider velocity took a noticeable step backwards last season and his ability to make batters chase and whiff went with it.
The Rangers had success two seasons ago with a recently injured former star closer (see: Yates, Kirby) and Romano could be had on a friendly deal. The Rangers believed Yates, who was an All-Star in his one season with the club, would rediscover his top form multiple years removed from Tommy John surgery. Romano underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery two summers ago.
He signed an $8.5 million deal with the Phillies last winter and, according to Spotrac, has a $2.7 million valuation this offseason. That’s a reasonable price for a 32-year-old just two years removed from an All-Star selection.
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