TEXAS — In Congressional District 15, which stretches from the border north to San Antonio, Tejano music star Bobby Pulido and Ada Cuellar are the Democratic candidates challenging incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz.

What You Need To Know

At least one political scientist thinks the new congressional map that shifted the boundaries of the 15th District will make reelection more difficult for De La Cruz

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) designated the seat now held by De La Cruz as its sole target in Texas to flip during the next election cycle

In South Texas, Congressional District 28 was redrawn to give Republicans more of a partisan advantage. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar has a standout Republican opponent in Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina

Primary Election Day in Texas is March 3

“She is very aware of the necessity to campaign hard and, and not take her victory for granted. Just because you have, you’re able to sing and carry a tune doesn’t mean you’re able to be a good congressperson,” said Wayne Hamilton, the executive director of Project Red TX.

At least one political scientist thinks the new congressional map that shifted the boundaries of the 15th District will make reelection more difficult for De La Cruz.

“The partisan profile isn’t all that much different, but the district’s composition changed notably. So she’s not going to be the incumbent for around half of the new Congressional District 15 voters, which thus reduces the incumbency advantage,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University professor of political science.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) designated the seat now held by De La Cruz as its sole target in Texas to flip during the next election cycle. One Democratic strategist calls Pulido a quality candidate.

“If you made a Democratic candidate for South Texas in a lab, it would be Bobby Pulido. And you can just not overstate his cultural significance,” said Luke Warford, founder and president of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund.

In South Texas, Congressional District 28 was redrawn to give Republicans more of a partisan advantage. Incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar has a standout Republican opponent in Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina.

“He finally had had all he could of the of the Democrats pushing into the left, pushing the left, and that’s why he switched parties looking to be more at home with people whose values that, him and his family align with,” said Hamilton.

President Donald Trump pardoned Cuellar of bribery accusations and hindered a possible GOP campaign strategy.

“That’s probably something that Tijerina doesn’t want to bring up in the campaign too much because it sort of shows implicit support from Trump for Cuellar,” said Jones.

Still, the National Republican Congressional Committee claims South Texas’ 28th District and 34th District are winnable this election cycle, while Democrats think the 2026 election cycle will favor their party.

“We’ve got Trump in the White House. His favorability is low. There’s issues with the economy. Folks are worried about inflation and the cost of living. And, you know, I look at those districts and I think Democrats should definitely be competing there. And I would not be writing those districts off at all,” said Warford.

The redrawn 34th District takes the city of McAllen out of the district, which is currently represented by Democrat U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. Former Republican U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores is running against 10 other Republicans, including attorney Eric Flores, who is a client of Republican strategist Matthew Brownfield.

“It’s time for us as a party to unify behind someone who has a really good chance of winning in the fall and make no doubt about it Congressman Gonzalez is in a tough position here in the district,” said Brownfield, a political consultant at Pelican Campaigns.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, D-Austin, was drawn out of his Austin-based Congressional District 35, leaving no incumbent in the race for a district that in now based out of San Antonio and more rural and Republican-leaning. The DCCC is also targeting this district.

“A lot will depend on though, which candidates are nominated both by the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the race,” said Jones.

Democratic candidates vying to represent the 35th District include Marine Corps veteran John Lira and Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia, who is running as an “old school Democrat.”

“Those are candidates like that who have profiles that are not necessarily the traditional Democratic profile, really have the potential to focus more on the issues that matter most to voters,” said Warford.

And among the six-plus Republican candidates running to represent the 35th District are Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and former state Rep. John Lujan, who Brownfield also works for.

“President Trump won the old lines by seven points and the new lines by ten in CD-35. So in both of these instances, these Democratic candidates are now swimming upstream,” said Brownfield.

Primary Election Day in Texas is March 3.