Jasmine Crockett’s Chances of Beating James Talarico in Texas Primary—Poll

Representative Jasmine Crockett, Texas Democrat, holds a sizable lead over Texas state Representative James Talarico, also a Democrat, in the most recent poll of likely primary voters in the 2026 Senate race.

The new poll by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University is the first since Crockett formally announced her candidacy on Monday, showing she has swiftly positioned herself as frontrunner in the Democratic field as the party seeks to break a three-decade losing streak in statewide contests.

“While many voters are still learning about James, he starts out very competitive. Polling consistently shows that the more people get to know James, the more they support him,” Talarico’s campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told Newsweek in a Friday email.

Crockett told Newsweek in an emailed statement that “it’s humbling that after four days of being in this race, our campaign has a commanding lead.” She continued, saying: “We will continue to work and share our unifying message with all Texans about how we can have an affordable life.”

Why It Matters

Election after election in recent years, Democrats have seen an opportunity to flip a seat in a Republican stronghold, with millions of dollars being poured behind candidates, but they ultimately end up losing. Crockett has attracted national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump. Her late entrance into the primary has raised praise from some, while others have raised concerns that the move may complicate the party’s chances of winning in the GOP stronghold.

What To Know

According to the Texas Southern University poll of 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters, Crockett received support from 51 percent of respondents, compared to 43 percent for Talarico—a lead of 8 points for the congresswoman. The results—released on Friday and reported by Concho Valley Homepage, a local outlet—carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percent, and the poll was carried out from December 9 to 11.

Crockett leads Talarico among women (57 percent to 36 percent), voters 55 and older (59 percent to 34 percent), and Black voters (89 percent to 8 percent). Talarico draws more support from white voters (53 percent to 40 percent), men (52 percent to 42 percent ), Latino voters (51 percent to 41 percent), and particularly among voters under 34 years old (63 percent to 34 percent).

Polling also revealed a significant recognition gap between the two candidates. While only 6 percent of likely Democratic primary voters indicated unfamiliarity with Crockett, 21 percent said the same about Talarico. Voters polled said Crockett would best galvanize the Democratic base and mobilize non-voters, but Talarico was seen as more capable of attracting habitual Republican voters.

Crockett and Talarico are currently considered the top contenders in the Democratic primary, after former Representative Colin Allred announced he would drop out of the race this week, running for a House seat instead.

While Crockett has emerged as the primary favorite, statewide polls have shown Republican candidates with a lead over both Crockett and Talarico, regardless of the GOP nominee. Top candidates in the Texas GOP primary include incumbent Senator John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Representative Wesley Hunt.

RealClearPolling averages show Cornyn ahead of Crockett by 6 points, Hunt leading her by 5 points and Paxton up by 2 points. For Talarico, the averages show Cornyn leading by 3 points, Hunt ahead by 6 points and Paxton up by 3. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and Republicans have consistently won Senate and presidential races by margins ranging from 2.5 to 14 points in recent cycles.

What People Are Saying

Talarico campaign spokesperson JT Ennis told Newsweek on Friday: “This is a single-digit race before any money has been spent. While many voters are still learning about James, he starts out very competitive. Polling consistently shows that the more people get to know James, the more they support him. As voters hear his message of taking on the billionaire mega-donors and their puppet politicians, James will earn their support and win.”

Representative Jasmine Crockett told Newsweek on Friday: “The Texas Southern poll illustrates that voters know what I know: that I’m in the best position to mobilize voters who’ve been overlooked, ignored, and excluded. Over half of democratic voters agree that I am the candidate who will be most successful in getting infrequent voters to show up en masse. Getting those voters to show up and make their voices heard is the only way for a Democrat to win in Texas. I’m honored to have the support of a wide cross-section of voters, and I will keep working to grow this winning coalition, to bring people into the process, and uplift every voice.”

Ken Paxton, Texas attorney general and Republican Senate candidate, told Newsweek on Monday: “Crazy Jasmine Crockett is going to lose by double digits in the general..”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told reporters on Wednesday that he’s “absolutely delighted” Crockett is running, adding: “I think it’s one of the greatest things that’s happened to the Republican Party in a long, long time. I want her to have the largest, loudest microphone that she can every single day.”

What Happens Next

The Texas Democratic primary for the Senate nomination will take place on March 3, 2026. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff election is scheduled for May. The winner will challenge the Republican nominee in the November 2026 general election.

Update, 12/12/25 at 1:43 p.m. ET: A statement from Crockett was added.