TEXAS — The Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee sees Texas on the verge of a shift. The group plans to target five districts in the 2026 general election, spanning from Corpus Christi to Garland.
“The last general election was unusual in that Donald Trump took a greater share of minority votes, particularly Hispanic votes than Republicans normally do,” said Cal Jillson, a professor of political sciences at Southern Methodist University. “So what Democrats are banking on is that Hispanics who supported Trump in 2024 are now leaving him.”
Hispanic voters could open the door for Democrats to take back seats in South and Central Texas. Two San Antonio state House districts have Democrats running unopposed in their primaries. The sole Democratic candidate Zack Dunn in District 121 thinks he can oust state Rep. Marc LaHood, R-San Antonio, who won by five points in 2024.
“I think a reasonable, pragmatic Democrat can absolutely speak to the voters in this district and say, I will fight for you in Austin,” said Dunn.
Also in San Antonio, Kristian Carranza is the only Democrat running for Texas House District 118. The seat was left open by state Rep. John Lujan, R-San Antonio, who is now running for Congress.
“I represent somebody who comes from the community, and is a Democrat who is trusted, vocal, and is focused on the affordability issues that people just want to hear you talk about,” Carranza said.
Carranza lost to Lujan in 2024 by three points. She now will face one of the three Republicans vying for the vacant seat, Jorge Borrego, Desi Martinez or Joe Shellhart. Borrego says the culture of the district is conservative.
“When I’m talking to voters, I hear the same thing. Everyone’s struggling with property taxes. They feel like law enforcement isn’t getting enough support. They feel that despite the fact that they’re our property tax bills are high to fund our schools, they’re just not getting the educational outcomes that they feel that their children deserve,” said Borrego. “All things that the Republicans have been leading on and that the Democrats have quite a contrary picture on.”
In North Texas, longtime state Rep. Angie Chen Button, R-Garland, will face three Republican challengers in the primary election. With just one Democrat in the race, Zach Herbert thinks that could give him a headstart to pitch himself to potential swing voters.
“Texans here in this district understand that there needs to be a change. There needs to be a change in leadership to where we’re actually looking into the best interest of Texans,” said Herbert.
Political scientists say challenging Button will be a challenge but possible if Democrats overperform — and the economy will be a key factor.
“The key thing that Trump’s advisers are trying to get him to do now is to go out on the campaign trail and talk about affordability in a way that suggests he understands that people are struggling. The economy is going to be the dominant issue and if Democrats own that issue, that could lead to overperformance around the country,” said Jillson.
On the coast, state Rep. Denise Villalobos, R-Corpus Christi, flipped her district in 2024 by 11 points. State Rep. Janie Lopez, R-San Benito, won in 2024 by 10 points, making a Democratic victory next year more of a challenge.