It’s not just Christmas that’s expected to be abnormally toasty.
A new national forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service, has predicted above-normal temperatures for almost all of Texas over the next three months.
The center’s forecasts assign probabilities of above- or below-normal conditions across the country, with some areas getting assigned equal chances if climate signals are less clear. The newest forecast, which covers January, February and March, has the highest certainty of above-normal temperatures in West Texas and Florida.
Notably, these forecasts don’t indicate how far above normal the temperatures could climb, simply whether they could be above normal.
D-FW Weather Wise
Central, North and East Texas were also determined to have an above-normal probability of warmth, but the trend is rather small — a 33% to 40% chance. Above normal was only a slightly more likely outcome than normal or below-normal conditions.
The warming pattern across the entire southern United States is consistent with the La Niña conditions observed in the Pacific Ocean, the climate center said. La Niña exists when colder water in the Pacific Ocean pushes the jet stream further north, which results in hotter and drier conditions in Texas and neighboring states.
The ocean is expected to transition out of La Niña during the period from January to March, back to neutral conditions.
The center is also predicting drier conditions for much of Texas, consistent with the La Niña trend. But North Texas just misses this pattern, instead receiving a designation of equal chances for precipitation in the coming months.