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Texas Tech Athletics
Conference play has arrived in the Big 12, and with it comes an important question: which team is the third-best in the conference?
We know that TCU and Iowa State are the class of the Big 12 in some order. Both teams look like dark horse championship contenders and should run through conference play without much trouble. But that third spot? It feels wide open. In the early parts of the season, Baylor looked poised to take on that role, reaching as high as No. 7 in the AP poll, but a loss to Texas Tech to open conference play has introduced plenty of doubt into how good the Bears are.
At the moment, the Red Raiders are sitting at No. 21 in the AP Top 25, making them the third-highest-ranked Big 12 program. Is it as easy as that? Maybe. Maybe not.
Let’s take a look at six candidates for the role of the Big 12’s third-best team.
Is this finally the year that a Krista Gerlich-coached Texas Tech team manages to avoid falling off a cliff in conference play? It seems like every year, the Red Raiders emerge from their relatively-easy non-conference schedule with a lot of wins and then doesn’t add many wins in conference play. Texas Tech has finished over .500 overall in three consecutive seasons, but its Big 12 records over that span were 6-13, 6-14 and 6-15.
But this year might be different. The trio of Bailey Maupin, Snudda Collins and Jalynn Bristow gives the team something it’s rarely had: three high-level scorers. Much of the Gerlich era has featured Texas Tech relying on one or two players, but there’s significantly more depth on this roster, which is a big part of why the Red Raiders are undefeated and have the fifth-best net rating in the conference. Tech is now ranked for the first time since 2012 and looks to be in position to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013.
I’m including Arizona State here because the Sun Devils are undefeated, but this feels a bit like fool’s gold. Their win over Colorado was their first victory over a team with a top-70 Her Hoop Stats rating.
With that said, 14 wins in a row is still 14 wins in a row. Molly Miller has turned this program around immediately, with the team already winning more games than it has in any season since 2019-20. But of all the contenders for this space, the Sun Devils have the lowest net rating, and the offense still has a long way to go, with only Houston holding a lower offensive rating among Big 12 teams. I think Arizona State lacks the scoring options to consistently beat top teams.
I’m not sure I understand this Cowgirls team. It has a ton of talent between Micah Gray, Amari Whiting and Haleigh Timmer and has mostly had no trouble scoring, but two cold nights have both led to losses. Is this a defense capable of winning tough games?
Just look at the team’s lone win over a team with a top 100 Her Hoop Stats rating: Miami. The Cowgirls won 87-84, but that meant they allowed the Hurricanes to score 9.1 points over their season average. It’s going to be tough to trust this team, and we’ll probably learn a lot on New Year’s Eve when it faces Baylor
12-1 BYU is another huge surprise, but I tend to view the Cougars more in the unsustainable side like Arizona State than in the real contender side like Texas Tech. The defense has played especially well, but the level of competition matters here. The Cougars have played against two teams with a top-100 Her Hoop Stats rating, losing by 13 to Vanderbilt and barely beating Virginia Tech.
The Cougars deserve credit for playing so well, but beating Montana and Washington State by a combined three points doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into the team’s New Year’s Eve showdown with TCU.
One common refrain here is not trusting a team on one side of the ball or the other, but the Mountaineers are solid offensively and defensively, ranking in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive rating. The 22-point loss to Villanova stands out as notably concerning, but you can forgive one bad game if the rest of the season goes well.
Mark Kellogg’s squad is getting strong perimeter defense from point guard Jordan Harrison, and Sydney Shaw has been shooting the ball very well, connecting on 42 percent of her 3-pointers so far. The leap she’s taken as a shooter has greatly helped this team, but is it sustainable?
We have to talk about Baylor, the only team on this list to lose its first Big 12 game. Baylor opened the season with what looked, at the time, like a huge win over Duke, but that win hasn’t aged well, and Baylor’s offense has been inconsistent throughout the season.
Taliah Scott has been as good as advertised, but her teammates just haven’t stepped up. Baylor’s net rating drops from +34.4 to +11.8 when Scott sits, highlighting her oversized importance to this team.
This isn’t a bad team, but it’s also definitely not living up to its full potential. That’s not to say it can’t, but someone will have to step up as a scorer. Could Yuting Deng be that player? She scored 22 in the loss to the Red Raiders.
So, who’s No. 3?
Every Big 12 team — save for TCU and Iowa State — is flawed. West Virginia feels like the least flawed, so I’m going with the Mountaineers here. Baylor has the talent to take over the role. Texas Tech might be poised to sustain this leap. The other three feel like they’re missing a little something.
All Times Eastern
Wednesday, Dec. 31 – Baylor at Oklahoma State – 3:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Wednesday, Dec. 31 – Arizona State at Utah – 4:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Wednesday, Dec. 31 – TCU at BYU – 9:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Thursday, Jan. 1 – West Virginia at Kansas – 1:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Saturday, Jan. 3 – Arizona at Texas Tech – 7:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Saturday, Jan. 3 – TCU at Utah – 9:00 p.m. – ESPN+
Sunday, Jan. 4 – Baylor at Iowa State – 3:00 p.m. – ESPN
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