Oregon vs. Texas Tech

It doesn’t matter the year, New Year’s Day has always been a monumental day in the college football world. This year, it features three College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The first of those games is down in Miami, where Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl will decide the second team to advance to the semifinals. The Ducks deleted the Dukes of James Madison from the CFP bracket with a 51-34 win in Eugene, but now they’ll step up in class and also play a long way from home.

To say that this is uncharted territory for the Red Raiders is an understatement. They haven’t finished a season ranked in the Top 25 since 2009. This is their fourth straight bowl appearance under Joey McGuire, but those games have been the Liberty, Independence, and Texas Bowls. Not exactly a CFP-level bowl game. This is the first time since 1955 as a member of the Border Conference under DeWitt Weaver that Texas Tech has won the conference outright.

 

With a lot on the line, a program used to this type of spotlight and these types of postseason games is a slight favorite over a program that has no experience in these situations.

Odds from Circa Sports as of December 27, 10:45 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

Capital One Orange Bowl: Oregon (-2, 52.5) vs. Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1, Noon ET (ESPN)

While Texas Tech hasn’t played in New Year’s Six bowls, championship games, or the College Football Playoff, they have been building up to this moment. When McGuire was hired, it was an outside-the-box move by the Texas Tech athletic department. McGuire’s reputation was as a recruiter, not as a head coach. He was the associate head coach at Baylor under Matt Rhule and Dave Aranda, but also just a position coach. Give Texas Tech credit because in the transfer portal era, you need a closer as a head recruiter and that’s precisely what McGuire is.

Even with some coordinator turnover, as the Red Raiders are in the CFP with two first-year coordinators in Mack Leftwich and Shiel Wood, the talent level of the program has skyrocketed enough to put them in this position. A midseason loss to Arizona State without starting QB Behren Morton is the only blemish on the Texas Tech body of work for this season, as they pummeled BYU in the regular season and in the Big 12 Championship Game, along with a very impressive win at Utah that set the trajectory for this season.

Now, that being said, it is fair to question the body of work. While Texas Tech crushed most of their opponents, their 68th-ranked strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin is the lowest for any team in the top 27 of his rankings. Oregon, meanwhile, is listed as having the 17th-ranked strength of schedule.

However, all a team can do is play the opponents listed on the schedule and the Red Raiders were dominant. Only Ohio State entered the quarterfinal round with fewer yards per play allowed than the Red Raiders, who were one of two teams to hold opponents under four yards per play. Texas Tech also sits barely outside the top 20 in yards per play on offense, despite three different QBs forced into action.

Behren Morton completed 67% of his passes with a 22/4 TD/INT ratio and mostly stayed healthy, while being helped by a 1,000-yard rusher in Cameron Dickey. Morton and the QBs spread the ball around, as nobody hit 60 receptions or 850 yards over the first 13 games, but four players caught at least 46 passes and all four of them had at least 550 receiving yards, so Oregon can’t just lock in on one guy.

Defensively, the Red Raiders were the only team in the nation to allow under 1,000 rushing yards and also the only team to allow under 900 rushing yards. Their 39 sacks enter this game tied for sixth and their 31 takeaways lead the nation. This is also effectively a top-10 defense on third down. With all of those takeaways and some offensive successes, Texas Tech ranks third in the nation in EPA (expected points added) margin per CFB Graphs.

The Ducks have an impressive set of statistics, too. Heading into this game, only Vanderbilt, North Texas, and Notre Dame had more yards per play on offense and Oregon was just outside the top five in yards per play allowed on defense. What’s interesting about that is they only racked up 25 sacks, 14 fewer than Texas Tech. The Ducks boast a top-five pass defense by completion percentage against and a top-20 unit in yards per carry allowed. Of course, Texas Tech has the nation’s best run defense with just 2.3 YPC against.

Quite simply, this game rests on the shoulders of Oregon QB Dante Moore. Moore, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards with a 28/8 TD/INT ratio, is mobile enough to avoid negative plays. He only took 12 sacks this season and managed 3.4 yards per carry, which doesn’t seem like a big deal, but you don’t want third-and-long against this Red Raider defense.

While the top four ball carriers averaged 6.9, 6.4, 8.6, and 6.0 yards per carry, Moore’s ability to get the ball out to the receivers in space is the key to Oregon holding serve as the favorite here. The Ducks averaged 12.5 yards per reception and the team’s top three wide receivers all averaged 15+ yards per grab. Creating explosives in the passing game while neutralizing the Red Raiders’ ability to get to the QB will help Lanning’s team advance.

Oregon vs. Texas Tech Orange Bowl Prediction

Lanning took over the Ducks prior to the 2022 season and owns a 47-7 record. But, those seven losses are Georgia (49-3), Washington (37-34), Oregon State (38-34) in 2022; Washington (36-33), Washington in Pac-12 Championship Game (34-31) in 2023; Ohio State in CFP quarterfinal (41-21) in 2024; Indiana (30-20) in 2025.

Lanning plays the bully role extremely well, but when faced with rivalry games or teams on his level, he has had some issues. Even in the wins against top-five types of teams, they’ve been very close and could have swung one way or the other. Can he slay that demon here? The defensive performances against better teams this season have been underwhelming. The Ducks are vulnerable here.

Pick: Texas Tech ML (+115)

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college football games on our Pro Picks Page.

See our Bowl Game Betting Hub for more previews and predictions.