A final look ahead to the Texas Tech Red Raiders facing the Oregon Ducks in the Orange Bowl…
Texas Tech vs. Oregon
When: 11 a.m. Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Records: No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1, 8-1); No. 5 Oregon (12-1, 8-1)
Last meeting: Sept. 9, 2023 (Oregon won, 38-30)
Sports Roundup
TV: ESPN
What’s at stake?
After a $28 million spending spree, Texas Tech has reached the College Football Playoff. Its rise to a No. 4 seed was historic, but the Red Raiders’ season now hinges on a matchup with No. 5 Oregon, whose only loss came to the nation’s top program, Indiana.
Thursday’s quarterfinal bout pits the rising contender of Texas Tech against an Oregon program riddled with success at the highest level. However, when the two take the field, no dollar amount or history of draft picks will change the fact that it’s win or go home.
Texas Tech is no longer the same team it was when the two programs met in Lubbock in 2023, but Oregon remains a hopeful blue-blood, tirelessly searching for a national championship.
When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech’s offense has a problem with stalled drives. In the Red Raiders’ two biggest games of the season — the first against then-No. 7 BYU and again against BYU in the Big 12 Championship — they failed to reach the endzone on six drives created by a turnover in BYU territory. Texas Tech went 3-for-11 on redzone trips between both contests.
The problem became such a concern that head coach Joey McGuire nicknamed the redzone the “No Stone Zone.” This was in part because kicker Stone Harrington made a program-record five field goals in the November game against BYU. Texas Tech also leads the nation in redzone field goals.
Outside of the BYU games, Texas Tech scores a touchdown on roughly 61% of its redzone trips. However, the Red Raiders are one of the nation’s most explosive teams, scoring roughly 41.3% of their 67 offensive touchdowns on plays outside of the redzone. The Red Raiders are No. 2 nationally in yards per rush against and No. 6 in yards per reception.
Success on offense for Texas Tech will rely on its big-play ability against an Oregon squad that allowed nine explosive plays against James Madison in the first round of the College Football Playoffs.
When Oregon has the ball
McGuire considers Oregon quarterback Dante Moore to be a possible No. 1 overall draft pick – and rightly so. The sophomore ranks third nationally in completion percentage amongst quarterbacks who played in 10 or more games and third in passing efficiency across the board.
Moore has accomplished this with a slew of injuries to his wide receivers. Expected No. 1 option Evan Stewart has missed all of 2025 with a torn patellar tendon, standout freshman Dakorien Moore, from Duncanville, missed four games and Gary Bryant Jr. missed three. Moore and Bryant Jr. played in the Ducks’ first round win and aren’t listed on the injury report ahead of Thursday.
In their place, tight end Kenyon Sadiq slotted in as Moore’s No. 1 option, leading the team with 42 receptions and eight touchdowns. The junior is expected to be a first-round selection in most NFL mock drafts.
Texas Tech boasts two of the top pass coverage linebackers in the country in Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts, so the return of Moore and Bryant Jr. will grant Moore additional options to avoid the Red Raiders’ linebacker pair.
Prediction
Texas Tech will arrive at Hard Rock Stadium in custom-fitted black felt cowboy hats, commonly worn at a funeral or during mourning. The symbolism is evident outside of the fun in matching with Rodriguez, who dons the same hat regularly. However, the funeral will be their own.
Oregon’s offense and the Red Raider defense can go pound-for-pound across four quarters, but there has been a predictability to Texas Tech offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich’s offense as of late. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is one of the greats, and it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t have an answer for a repetitive offense.
Fans should get their fill of fireworks on New Year’s Eve because Thursday’s matchup will be low scoring and riddled with turnovers.
Final score: Oregon 19, Texas Tech 15
Monday’s TV/Radio listings (Dec. 29)Anderson scores 29 points as No. 15 Texas Tech wins 46th straight non-conference home game
Find more Texas Tech coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.