MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) get their shot at quarterfinal playoff redemption on Thursday when they take on No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) in the Orange Bowl.
Last year, the top-ranked Ducks fell 41-21 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl during the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
Oregon has faced just one team on TTU’s level, losing 30-20 to No. 1 Indiana. However, the Red Raiders have arguably not played a team close to the Ducks’ level, creating a bit of mystery as to how well Texas Tech will do making a leap up in competition.
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) vs. No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
When: Thursday, January 1Time: 9 a.m. PTWhere: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.TV: ESPN and ABCCoaches: Oregon’s Dan Lanning, fourth year (47-7). Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire, fourth year (35-17).Latest line: Oregon by 2.5.Stream: You can watch this game on DIRECTV (free trial) or with Sling (a Sling day pass to watch this game and more is just $4.99). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.What’s at stake
The winner moves on to the Peach Bowl semifinal in Atlanta to face the winner of the Rose Bowl matchup between No. 1 Indiana (13-0) and No. 9 Alabama (11-3).
Oregon is searching for its first playoff victory since 2014, when the Ducks defeated Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
This is Texas Tech’s first playoff appearance.
Oregon’s offense vs. Texas Tech’s defense
This matchup is the headliner and something must give.
The Ducks’ 39.2 points and 468.9 yards per game each rank ninth nationally.
Texas Tech ranks third in both total defense, allowing 254.4 yards per game, and scoring defense, surrendering 10.9 points per contest. The Red Raiders lead the nation in rushing defense, giving up 68.5 yards per game.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore (#5) throws to the sideline as the No. 8 Ducks face the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a college football game at Autzen Stadium in Eugene on Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. Sean Meagher/The Oregonian
Mostly desperate opponents trailing TTU by large margins have averaged 185.9 yards per game, 24th in the country, but averaged just 9.3 yards per completion, the second-fewest.
Texas Tech is led by linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (117 tackles), who finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting. Transfer linebacker David Bailey ranked second nationally with 13.5 sacks.
“They’re a great defense on every level,” UO tight end Kenyon Sadiq said. “So, I think it’s gonna be a good test for us. Iron sharpens iron.”
UO’s sharpness on offense could depend on its rushing attack. Quarterback Dante Moore has had dominant moments.
“This quarterback is special,” McGuire said.
But Moore is at his best when the rushing attack is humming.
Teams have struggled to run the ball against the Red Raiders, but UO has the offensive line size and experience to succeed where almost everyone else has failed.
“Our defensive line has got to show up,” McGuire said.
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (10) defends during the Big 12 Conference championship NCAA college football game between Texas Tech and BYU Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, in Arlington, Texas.(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
If Ducks running backs Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. can rip off nice gains, the Texas Tech pass rush will become limited, and Moore could unleash passes to a fleet of receivers better than any crew Texas Tech has faced.
Moore is third nationally in completion percentage at 72.4% and ranks fifth nationally with a passer rating of 170.1.
If TTU can’t get to Moore, it will be a long day for the Red Raiders’ defense.
Oregon defense vs. Texas Tech’s offense
TTU quarterback Behren Morton has passed for 22 touchdowns with just four interceptions and has a fleet of tall pass catchers to work with.
But UO can’t afford to ignore the Red Raiders’ rushing attack. Running backs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams combined for 1,887 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, each averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
Texas Tech running back Cameron Dickey (8) gains yards after a catch as BYU cornerback Therrian Alexander (1) makes the stop in the first half of a Big 12 Conference championship NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)AP
“Explosive offense,” Lanning said. “They have receivers outside that can win. They’ve got running backs that are really good in the run game, a quarterback that makes great decisions, tight ends show up in the passing game. They’re able to play with tempo, which will be a challenge at times.”
Texas Tech ranks second nationally behind Oregon with 90 plays covering at least 20 yards. The Ducks have 91.
A big advantage for Oregon could come via its pass rush not having to worry too much about Morton getting loose as a runner.
Morton, who suffered a hairline fracture in his lower right leg two months ago that cost him two games, said he is about 85% healthy. But he wasn’t much of a runner to begin with.
If the Ducks can generate a consistent pass rush, Morton could be neutralized. However, one of his strengths is getting the ball out quickly; he’s been sacked just 17 times.
That leads to the matchup to watch.
Matchup to watch
Oregon’s secondary versus Texas Tech’s receivers.
Morton doesn’t hold onto the ball very long, and why would he? His receivers are typically ready to deliver big plays and routinely get open.
Southern California wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) attempts to hurdle Oregon defensive backs Dillon Thieneman (31) and Jadon Canady, right, during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025, in Eugene, Ore.AP
UO’s secondary must lock down TTU’s receiving crew.
The Red Raiders are led in receiving by 6-foot-4 wide receiver Caleb Douglas, 6-3 wide receiver Reggie Virgil, 6-2 wide receiver Coy Eakin, and 6-2 tight end Terrance Carter.
Each has produced at least 46 receptions, 552 yards, and five touchdowns. Douglas leads the team with 846 yards and seven touchdowns.
Oregon’s secondary has helped the Ducks rank sixth nationally in passing yards allowed at 158.1 per game. However, USC, a team with TTU’s combination of efficient quarterback play and elite receivers, found success against the Ducks’ secondary.
Oregon defeated the Trojans 42-27, but quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 306 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions.
. . .
What Dan Lanning said: “The football field is the same length, same width. You get an opportunity to go out there and compete with your teammates, and I think we both are hoping for a great crowd from both sides, so there’s not a lot that’s different. Even though there’s distractions that exist as you go out to games like this, there’s some pomp and circumstance, there’s some fanfare, ultimately the game is the same.”
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, and Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire shake hands as they pose with the Orange Bowl trophy at a press conference ahead of the Orange Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal game, Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025, in Dania Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) APAP
What Joey McGuire said on his team not having played since Dec. 6: “I think it’s very important for us to start well in the game. I think one thing we also have to do is we’ve got to weather their storm. They started really fast against James Madison. So, we’ve got to do a good job of weathering their storm.
That’s one thing that I think as a whole we have to take a look at the structure we have at this level of College Football Playoff that really need to change. But it is what it is right now. So, we’ve got to do a great job of handling it and we really do need to start really fast.”
Key Stat
The Ducks have allowed opponents to score on 90% of their red-zone trips. Texas Tech has scored on 87.7% of its red zone trips.
“I think there’s a lot of times where you say they’ve struggled in the red zone, they probably haven’t had a lot of red zone teams having opportunities against their defense,” McGuire said.
In fact, the Ducks have allowed just 30 such trips, the 11th fewest in the nation.
Texas Tech’s 73 red zone trips rank second and it ranks first in red zone scores with 64, of which 23 were field goals.
Prediction
While this matchup is competitive, Oregon’s overall talent and lessons learned from Indiana give the Ducks a slight advantage.
Score: Ducks 24, Red Raiders 20.
Oregon football 2025 season schedule, scores
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) vs. No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
When: Thursday, January 1Time: 9 a.m. PTWhere: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.TV: ESPN and ABCStream: You can watch this game on DIRECTV (free trial) or with Sling (a Sling day pass to watch this game and more is just $4.99). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.