Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in NFL Week 18.

The final Sunday of the 2025-26 NFL regular season rolls around in Week 18. Yes, you heard that right… the playoffs lie just around the corner. In the meantime though, the teams who won’t make the postseason bracket play their final games of the campaign with one more chance to show out on the field before hitting the offseason. In the early window of Sunday’s slate, the Dallas Cowboys look to finish at the .500 mark with a win against a New York Giants squad looking to secure a top draft pick. Will this NFC East matchup play out predictably, or are we in line for a potential upset to close the regular season?

Prepare for the day with a Cowboys vs. Giants prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 18 contest.

Cowboys vs. Giants prediction, preview

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys enter the final week with a record of 7-8-1, so a win on Sunday means a .500 finish within the realm of possibility. They’ll have the benefit of most of their starters being available after head coach Brian Schottenheimer talked about wanting to finish the campaign on a strong note, so watch for stars like Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to at least play the first half. This offense scored at will throughout much of the season with 28.4 points (fourth-most) and an NFL-leading 398.6 yards per game. Dallas also comes in at eighth in third-down conversion rate, though the red-zone scoring rate lags behind at 18th in the league. Points shouldn’t be hard to come by with the key cogs of the league’s top passing offense still in place as the Cowboys throw for 274.0 yards per outing while also ranking fifth in completion percentage and yards per pass, so a big day from Prescott via the air seems likely. That could prove especially true with halfback Javonte Williams and backup Malik Davis both shut down on IR, leaving the run game in a less-than-ideal situation. However, the door is open for fifth and seventh-round rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah (questionable; shoulder) to put quality film on tape against a weak rush defense.

Speaking of defenses, Dallas’ still sits among the worst in football. After giving up 23 points to the Josh Johnson-led Washington Commanders on Christmas Day, the Cowboys sit dead last with 29.8 points allowed per game along with 376.8 total yards (30th). The unit sits 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 31st in red-zone scoring rate allowed as well, particularly due to a very poor secondary. Former Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs was released this past week while Daron Bland ended up on IR prior to that, so it won’t be shocking to see another poor performance as indicated by a league-worst 253.6 passing yards allowed per game. Dallas also ranks 24th in sack percentage and 30th in takeaways per game (0.7).

New York Giants

Can the lowly Giants pull off an upset? It’ll be quite tough at 3-13 on the campaign, but this team did hang 34 points on the Las Vegas Raiders last week. A repeat could be in the cards given the poor defense they’re facing, but the Giants won’t have top wideout Wan’Dale Robinson available after he was ruled out with a rib injury. Tight end Theo Johnson has also been ruled out due to an illness (though an appearance on the scoreboard at a New York Knicks game on Friday night certainly sent social media chattering). With his top two targets sidelined, Jaxson Dart may struggle to get much going via the air with Darius Slayton leading the group of pass catchers. The Giants average 21.7 points (21st) and 330.6 yards per game (15th), converting third downs at the 17th-best rate but falling all the way to 28th in red-zone scoring rate. The ground-and-pound attack should continue behind the duo of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary though, and the team sits sixth in rushing yards per game with 127.1.

Defensively, a unit which could’ve been quite good never found its stride at all. Despite having talent like Dexter Lawrence, Jevon Holland and a handful of other playmakers, the Giants concede 26.4 points (26th) and 364.1 yards per game (29th). They’re 16th in opponent third-down conversion rate but 28th in red-zone scoring percentage allowed as well. The run defense is particularly weak, giving up 145.4 yards per contest on the ground (second-most) while the secondary sits 19th in passing yards against. While New York does sit 16th in sack rate, the defense forces just 0.8 takeaways per game (26th). Plus, Holland has been ruled out along with cornerback Cor’Dale Flott, and Lawrence was a DNP on Thursday and Friday with an illness.

Cowboys vs. Giants pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites on the road with -180 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Giants are listed at +150 to win outright with a game total of 49.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 82% of straight bets favor Dallas while 53% favor the over on the total.

Week 18 betting can prove tricky given how teams tend to shut players down towards the end of the season, but as long as the Cowboys’ starters do suit up for the first half, it’s tough to see them not covering at -3.5. This offense posted some of the most impressive outings of any team throughout the campaign and the Giants are missing a couple of key defensive backs. On one hand, perhaps Blue and Mafah don’t run the ball well and allow New York to drop an extra man into coverage at a regular rate. On the other hand, an excellent showing from Prescott as he connects with Pickens, Lamb and Jake Ferguson feels far more likely against this poor defense. That group shredded most of the units it faced — even some very formidable opponents — and it’s tough to see that stopping here given the matchup. Maybe the stars are pulled in the second half, but they’ll do damage while on the field.

Sure, Dart could potentially make some magic happen against the NFL’s worst secondary, but will an inconsistent Giants offense be able to keep up with their opponent? Given the talent on the interior of Dallas’ front seven with Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark as well as how that line improved somewhat down the stretch, New York’s run game may not move the ball quite as well as usual here. It could become a shootout, but barring that outcome, the Cowboys should build a nice little lead and hang on throughout the day to cover. Watch for the now-rare .500 season to come to fruition as Dallas ends year one under Schottenheimer on a high note.

Best bet: DAL Cowboys -3.5 (-105)