BYU looks to move to 4-0 in Big 12 play when they welcome TCU to the Marriott Center late Wednesday night. BYU has not started 4-0 in conference play since the 2012-2013 season; that was the only year in WCC play BYU started 4-0. TCU is 1-2 in conference play after a win over Baylor and losses to Kansas and Arizona.

The game tips off at 9pm MT on ESPN2.

BYU and TCU by the Numbers

Best Wins: Florida (N), Wisconsin (N), Baylor (H)

Losses: New Orleans (H), Michigan (H), Notre Dame (H), Kansas (A), Arizona (H)

KenPom Prediction: BYU 83, TCU 70 — BYU 89% win probability

TCU is the highest rated KenPom and NET team of BYU’s first four Big 12 opponents. After an upset loss to New Orleans in the season opener, TCU has looked like a NCAA Tournament caliber team. They have nice wins over Florida, Wisconsin, and Baylor, nearly beat Michigan early in the season, and had Kansas beat on road until a huge collapse at the end of regulation lost them the game in overtime.

TCU’s strength of their team is defense. They turn opponents over on 20.6% of possessions (#27 nationally), rebound the ball well, and surprisingly are good at blocking shots despite not having a tall front line.

Offensively, TCU is a balanced team who play 8-9 guys that they will involve in the offense. They’ll push the tempo at times and do a good job at sharing the ball. Their shooting percentages are middle of the road and they turn the ball over on 16% of possessions compared to their defenses turning over other teams nearly 21% of their time. Although they share the ball well, they guards aren’t great at breaking down a defense. Jamie Dixon is an excellent coach and schemes things up, but they can struggle in close games when they just need a guy to get a bucket.

David Punch, Forward — Punch has taken a big leap as a sophomore and is a All-Big 12 candidate. Punch leads the Horned Frogs with 14.1 ppg, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks. Listed at 6-foot-7 and 246 pounds, Punch isn’t tall but is a bruiser in the paint. He’s attempted only 20 threes in 16 games and does the majority of his work closer to the basket. I am curious how BYU guards Punch — seems like Keba, AJ, Kennard, Mihailo, and Abdullah Ahmed could all get time on him depending on lineups.

Xavier Edmonds, Forward — Edmonds is Punch’s frontcourt mate at 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds. Together they give TCU a physical frontcourt. Edmonds like Punch isn’t a big three point threat; he’s shot more than one three in just four games. He is also a physical presence inside, although their spacing is diminished when he is on the court with Punch. Edmonds is TCU’s third-leading scorer at 10.4 ppg.

Jayden Pierre, Guard — Pierre is TCU’s second leading scorer and top scoring guard, averaging 10.9 ppg. The 6-foot Providence transfer shoots 42% from three and leads the Horned Frogs with nearly five three-point attempts per game. Pierre scored 12 points for the Friars last year in their win over BYU.

Brock Harding, Guard — Harding is also listed at 6-foot and forms the starting backcourt with Pierre. Harding leads TCU with 6.2 assists per game and 2 steals. He averages 8.8 points and shoots 25% from three. Last year for Iowa, he shot 40% on three attempts per game.

Tanner Toolson, Guard — Toolson isn’t one of TCU’s top players, but he’s a familiar face and part of the rotation off the bench. Toolson averages 7 ppg and shoots 33% from three.

TCU is very well coached and in some ways punch above their talent level. They are very stout defensively and can cause mismatches offensively with some of their beef inside. David Punch presents a tough matchup for BYU and could have some success in the paint.

Ultimately, I think BYU wins this at home. While I think Punch can have success against BYU’s front court, I don’t think TCU has dynamic enough guards to give BYU trouble. Utah pressured BYU’s defense with guard penetration and I don’t see TCU with enough of that. I am curious to see how much BYU matches up Abdullah Ahmed versus Punch; BYU didn’t have Ahmed versus the physical front courts of UConn and Clemson, and he can give BYU’s difference a different look with his size inside.

I’ll take BYU in a game that is competitive but feels like BYU is in control.

Prediction: BYU 82, TCU 71