Jan. 16, 2026, 11:23 p.m. ET

Alex White has 2 BEST BETS during the NFL Divisional Round.

They are both totals in Sunday’s first game of the day when the Houston Texans (13-5) visit the New England Patriots (15-3). Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, is slated for 3 p.m. ET and will be televised on ABC and ESPN.

Houston, the AFC’s No. 1 Wild Card, heads to New England on a 10-game win streak. Despite 3 turnovers (QB C.J. Stroud’s 2 fumbles and 1 interception), the Texans dispatched QB Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Wild Card game 30-6 Monday night. Houston cashed as a 2.5-point road favorite and the Under (38.5) hit.

Houston’s defense, which scored a 33-yard fumble return (by DL Sheldon Rankins) , held Pittsburgh to 175 total yards, including just 81 in the second half. Offensively, Stroud threw for 250 yards with a TD, while RBs Woody Marks (112 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Nick Chubb (48 rushing yards) led the ground attack.

New England advanced behind a 16-3 home victory vs. the LA Chargers last Sunday. QB Drake Maye threw for 268 yards with a TD and a pick in his playoff debut. Plus, he ran for a team-best 66 yards, while K Andy Borregales kicked 3 field goals. The Patriots were 3.5-point favorites and the Under (45.5) cashed.

The Texans won the last head-to-head meeting 41-21 as 6.5-point road favorites in Week 6 last season as the Over (39) came through. Stroud finished with 192 passing yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick as Houston spoiled Maye’s first career NFL start — Maye threw for 243 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs.

The Texans are 10-8 against the spread (ATS) this season — 7-3 ATS during the 10-game win streak — with a 6-12 Over/Under record. The Patriots are 13-5 ATS and 11-7 O/U.

As of Friday at 11:2 p.m. ET, BetMGM Sportsbook lists the host Patriots as 3-point favorites (-120) — the Texans are +3 (+100) — with a low O/U line of 40.5 (-110 on each side). The first-half total is 20.5 (O: +110 | U: -135).

Listen below to find out Alex’s BEST BETS and here reasons behind them.

Make sure to catch Alex on Sports By the Book Monday through Thursday at 1 p.m. ET and on Football Frenzy Friday at 3 p.m. ET — live from the South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas.

Follow @alexwhitee on Twitter/X, SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and Facebook and more SportsbookWire.com’s NFL picks and predictions.

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