Texans at Patriots AFC Divisional Round odds, picks and predictions

Jan. 17, 2026Updated Jan. 18, 2026, 3:13 a.m. ET

The Houston Texans (12-5) and New England Patriots (14-3) meet Sunday for an AFC Divisional Round playoff game. Kickoff at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (ABC / ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Texans vs. Patriots odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Patriots lead the all-time series 11-4, including a 41-28 victory at home in an AFC Divisional Round game in 2013, as QB Tom Brady threw for 344 yards and 3 TDs, while RB Shane Vereen rushed for a TD, and had 2 receiving scores.

The Texans posted a 30-6 win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 2.5-point favorite Monday as the Under (38.5) cashed. Houston led just 7-6 after 3 quarters, but it piled up 23 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including a DT Sheldon Rankins 33-yard scoop-and-score, and a 50-yard pick-six by S Calen Bullock.

It was a costly win for the Texans, though, as star WR Nico Collins suffered a concussion, and he is out for Sunday’s game. WR Justin Watson also is in the concussion protocol, and out for Sunday. RB Woody Marks rushed for 112 yards and a TD, while WR Christian Kirk stepped up for Collins, posting 8 receptions for 144 yards and a TD.

The Patriots picked up a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card round last weekend, cashing as a 3.5-point favorite as the Under (45.5) hit. New England led just 6-3 at halftime, but gained some breathing room with 9:45 to go in regulation when QB Drake Maye hit TE Hunter Henry for a 28-yard TD strike, the game’s only TD. PK Andy Borregales had 3 field goals (23, 35, 39 yards).

The weather forecast calls for temperatures around freezing at kickoff, with a near 100 percent chance of light snow, picking up as the game goes on. Snow totals during the game could be 1-3 inches.

Watch the NFL on Fubo!Texans at Patriots odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:43 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Texans +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Patriots -175 (bet $175 to win $100)Against the spread: Texans +3 (+100) | Patriots -3 (-120)Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Texans at Patriots key injuries

Texans

OT Trent Brown (ankle) questionableWR Nico Collins (concussion) outWR Justin Watson (concussion) out

Patriots

RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) questionableLB Harold Landry III (knee) questionable

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TEXANS AT PATRIOTS: Best prop betsTexans at Patriots picks and predictionsPrediction

Patriots 18, Texans 13

No one could blame you if you’re a bit on the conservative side, and you want to bet PATRIOTS (-175) straight, rather than messing around with the points. New England isn’t priced out of line.

The Texans defense is sick, and they’re suffocating. The Steelers offense was unable to get much going downfield. Expect Houston’s D to really put the team on its collective backs, as the offense is down a big star, and a huge cog in the offense. The defense is going to have to try to win it again, just like last week. However, the Patriots at home will be a tad too much.

BET PATRIOTS (-175).

If you’re more of a traditional bettor, PATRIOTS -3 (-110) is the play. As long as this number, which has fluctuated, stays at a flat 3, rather than 3 and a hook, this is the way.

New England is going to face another tough defense, similar to last week, and points will be at a premium. Venue matters, though, and the Patriots will get it done in the end.

UNDER 40.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board, especially due to the weather. The snowy conditions could mean more of a ground-based rushing attack, which keeps the clock moving.

While, yes, this is a very low number, especially in this day and age, both of these defenses are lockdown units. The Texans pass rush is tenacious, and the Patriots linebackers are going to make life difficult for any attempts in the Houston passing game. And, the Texans are really going to miss Collins’ ability to spread the defense and create downfield, not that Houston is likely to air it out much with the snowy conditions.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Texans at Patriots AFC Divisional Round odds, picks and predictions

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