Jan. 18, 2026, 7:14 a.m. ET
The Tampa Bay Lightning (29-13-4) and Dallas Stars (27-12-9) meet Sunday. Puck drop from American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, is set for 2 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Stars odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Lightning lead 1-0, a 2-1 overtime win at home Oct. 30
The Lightning’s 11-game winning streak ended Friday with a 3-2 shootout loss to the St. Louis Blues. Tampa Bay failed to cash as a -205 road favorite as the Under (5.5) hit. It marked St. Louis’ first overtime or shootout win of the season after starting 0-8. RW Nikita Kucherov scored on a 2-man advantage and assisted on RW Oliver Bjorkstrand’s goal, with D Darren Raddysh assisting on both tallies.
The Stars dropped their ninth game in the last 11 on Thursday, falling 2-1 to the Utah Mammoth. Dallas lost as a +112 road underdog as the Under (6) cashed. The Stars struggled at the faceoff dot, losing 43 of 64 draws. RW Mikko Rantanen scored on the power play, and G Jake Oettinger finished with 25 saves.
Watch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning at Stars odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:06 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Lightning -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Stars -110 (bet $110 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-275) | Stars -1.5 (+220)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -110 | U: -110)Lightning at Stars projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (19-7-3, 2.26 GAA, .913 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Jake Oettinger (16-9-4, 2.74 GAA, .902 SV%, 2 SO)
Vasilevskiy remains unbeaten in regulation in 2026, continuing a strong January run. He is 4-0-1 this month with a 1.94 GAA and a .919 SV%. He has dominated the Stars throughout his career, posting a 16-4-3 record. He also earned a win earlier this season on Oct. 30, stopping 20 of 21 shots.
Oettinger has posted solid numbers overall this season, but has stumbled to open 2026. In January, he is 1-3-1 with a 3.56 GAA and an .862 SV%. He is 3-3-3 with a 2.76 GAA and .903 SV% in 10 career games against the Lightning, including a loss earlier this season despite stopping 31 of 33 shots.
Lightning at Stars picks and predictionsPrediction
Lightning 3, Stars 2
BET LIGHTNING (-110).
Despite a shootout loss Friday, Tampa Bay has gone 9-0-1 over its last 10 games, averaging 4.3 goals during that stretch and ranking second in the NHL at 3.48 goals per game. Dallas continues to struggle, posting a 2-5-4 record over its past 11 games while dealing with defensive lapses, inconsistent goaltending and penalty-kill issues. The Lightning won the first meeting 2-1 in OT and have taken 5 of the last 7 meetings. With Vasilevskiy anchoring a defense that has allowed 3 goals or fewer in 8 straight games, Tampa Bay holds the edge.
PASS.
No need to play around with the puck line when you’ve got moneyline odds tight as this one.
BET UNDER 6 (-110).
The Under has hit in 6 of the last 9 meetings, including the 2-1 result this season. Both teams have stayed under the total in 4 of their last 5 games. With Vasilevskiy in strong form to start 2026, another low-scoring game is likely.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.