Meteorologists and weather pages across social media are already sharing raw weather model graphics for next weekend, which means it’s time to talk carefully about what we’re seeing — and, more importantly, what we don’t know yet.
What we know right now
Those two facts alone are enough to raise eyebrows in Texas during winter.
What’s uncertain
At this early stage, there is low confidence in the exact details. Some long-range guidance suggests temperatures could be cold enough for rain to mix with or change over to freezing rain, sleet, or snow somewhere in the state.
Key word: could.
At six days out, models are still struggling with:
The exact track and timing of the storm system
How quickly cold air moves south
Surface temperatures versus temperatures aloft
Where precipitation overlaps with the coldest air
Small changes in any of these factors can dramatically alter outcomes — from cold rain to ice, snow, or nothing wintry at all.
What this does NOT mean
This is not a forecast of snow totals.
This is not an impact or accumulation map.
This is not a guarantee of winter weather for any specific city.
If you’re looking for exact locations or amounts right now, they simply don’t exist yet — no matter how confident a map on social media might look.
Why we’re watching it
The combination of returning moisture and a strong cold front is enough to keep this period on our radar. Texas winter weather setups are notoriously sensitive, and confidence typically doesn’t improve until much closer to the event.
What happens next
Over the next several days, we’ll be watching:
Trends in temperature forecasts
Consistency between model runs
How the timing of the cold front and precipitation evolves
As confidence improves, we’ll narrow down where wintry precipitation is most likely — or rule it out entirely if the signal fades.
Bottom line
Yes, precipitation looks possible next weekend.
Yes, colder air is expected to arrive around the same time.
Could there be some winter weather involved? Possibly.
But at this range, expect changes. Plenty of them.
We’ll continue to update this forecast as the picture becomes clearer.