Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for the New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA matchup.
It is a loaded day of NBA basketball as the league honors the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. with nine games of action and a few tributes throughout. Tipping off at 5:00 p.m. ET, the New York Knicks will face off with the Dallas Mavericks.
This marks the second matchup between these cross-conference opponents this season. In the first game, the Knicks produced a 113-111 victory, which took place back on Nov. 19th.
Looking at the odds for this matchup, the Knicks enter as 10.5-point favorites and hold -440 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mavericks hold +340 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 230.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Monday night matchup.
Knicks vs. Mavericks Preview
There was plenty of hype surrounding this Knicks team entering this season following the Conference Finals loss last season. While it holds a 25-17 record on the year, New York has dropped eight of its last 10 games entering tonight. Frustration is clearly starting to build, although it is expected to get a positive injury boost tonight. On the season, the Knicks are 21-22 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 24 of their 43 games.
Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart were each upgraded to questionable for the matchup after going through practice yesterday. Brunson missed the previous two games leading up to this matchup, while Hart was also out on Saturday, both with ankle injuries. Brunson headlines the production for the Knicks, averaging 28.2 points and 6.1 rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns adds 20.9 points and 11.5 rebounds, but frustration is clearly building within the fan base regarding his style of play. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have each had some encouraging flashes in the new Mike Brown system, while the team has gotten better bench production than in past seasons.Â
As a team, New York is averaging 118.4 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. It ranks third in offensive rating, 16th in field-goal percentage, third in three-point percentage and 24th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 114.9 points per game against the Knicks, which is the 12th-best rate in the NBA. The In-season Tournament champions also rank 19th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
It has been a turbulent season and a half for the Dallas Mavericks, who are still working their way toward organizational normalcy. Dallas holds a record of 17-26 on the year, which slots it at 12th place in the Western Conference. It enters this matchup coming off back-to-back victories over the Jazz and having won five of its last eight games. So far this year, the Mavericks have gone 19-24 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in 24 of their 43 games.
As has become the norm with this team, Dallas enters with a lengthy injury report. Cooper Flagg has been upgraded to questionable after missing the previous two games with an ankle sprain. The number one overall pick is posting averages of 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists on the season. Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, D’Angelo Russell, P.J. Washington and Dante Exum all remain out. Ryan Nembhard, Miles Kelly and Moussa Cisse are also considered questionable for the matchup. Dallas will lean on players like Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Brandon Williams and Klay Thompson to round out the rest of the roster.
The Mavericks are producing 114.2 points per game this season, which ranks 23rd in the NBA. They also rank 27th in offensive rating, 12th in field-goal percentage, 26th in three-point percentage and fourth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.0 points per game against them, which ranks 20th in the league. Dallas also ranks 10th in defensive rating and 10th in opponent field-goal percentage and holds teams to the worst three-point percentage in the league.
Knicks vs. Mavericks Prediction, Best Bet
Getting Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart back is a necessary boost for this Knicks team. The sense of urgency is beginning to pick up at the midpoint of the season, despite the In-season Tournament championship. Not only has New York lost eight of its last 10 games, but this includes being blown out by teams like the Pistons and Hawks, as well as falling short to the Kings and Suns twice.
Injuries have prevented the Dallas Mavericks from finding any sort of consistent stride this season. But Cooper Flagg’s return to the court is a notable shift, and he will make his Madison Square Garden debut in the NBA tonight. There is a bit of momentum on Dallas’ side, with it coming off back-to-back wins without its young star.
Brunson and Hart’s return helps the overall outlook, but it does not solve New York’s defensive issues. New York has failed to stop opponents on the perimeter all season, ranking 26th in opponent three-point attempts allowed and 26th in opponent three-point efficiency. The Mavericks aren’t loaded with shooting, but expect a clear effort to be made to create looks for Klay Thompson throughout and for this to be a reliable source of offense.
The 10.5 points is too many to lay in favor of this Knicks team in just about any matchup right now, particularly against a team like this spunky Mavericks squad. Dallas has won and covered three of its past four games since Anthony Davis’ injury. It also pushed this Knicks team to the limit in the first matchup, with the two-point loss coming without Davis or Flagg. Count on the Mavericks putting up a fight and for this game to come down to the wire. Expect the final score to fall within the 10.5-point spread, and bank on it continuing to be a work in progress for New York to find its peak level of play again.