Jan. 22, 2026, 7:42 a.m. CT
Predicting compensatory picks has long been one of the most difficult forecasts when it comes to draft season. For all the fanfare and hand rubbing associated with predicting whether a collegiate athlete is going to be able to maintain levels or excel them in the pro game, trying to make sense of how the NFL treats the distribution of their compensatory picks has been an equally difficult mystery.
Over a decade ago, Cowboys fan AdamJ13 was the first person able to claim success in being able to find tangible patterns in the league’s secret formula that sees them award a full round’s worth of extra picks. Sprinkled throughout the ends of each round from three to seven, the NFL gives teams compensation for losing free agents the year prior. There’s a ledger of players who qualify, and if a team loses more QFAs than they bring in, they are awarded extra picks based on the salary and performance of those guys. And while AdamJ13 was the initial scientist breaking down the secret sauce, Nick Korte has become the closest thing to a savant over the last decade.
Writing for OverTheCap, Korte keeps a consistent track of how playing time, incentives and other factors shift during the regular season. This year, he’s been very clear that there were a few starring members for the Dallas Cowboys’ calculations: DeMarcus Lawrence, Jourdan Lewis and Rico Dowdle. However changes down the stretch across the league have adjusted the Cowboys’ forecast from having two additional picks at the end of the fifth round, to now having one extra fifth and one extra sixth.
In his latest forecast, Korte sees Dallas still getting a pick for Lawrence (the seventh of nine fifth rounders awarded), but losing the Lewis pick and getting a sixth rounder for Brandin Cooks (fourth of five).
For a full explainer to how compensatory picks work, this article is suggested reading. After absorbing that, readers can move onto Korte’s breakdown of what he expects from the compensatory pick formula this year, which he leaves open to as many as 20 different outcomes based on the qualifying valuations and cutoff bubbles, the criteria for which round player qualifies for.
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For the Cowboys, this centers around three players whom the fans probably haven’t thought much about; Solomon Thomas, Chuma Edoga and Cooper Rush.
Rush, signed to be the Ravens’ backup QB this season, Edoga left for Jacksonville and Thomas came over from the Jets. Each of these players was at the qualifying threshold of whether they counted on Dallas’ ledger. Currently, here’s where Korte tracks the give and take, the comp pick cancellation chart.
Finally, Korte allows that one of the biggest mysteries to solve, how the league calculates their total number of players in a given season. The subset of where qualifying free agents are ranked in total salary, and the round they are assigned, shifts based on the total number of players the league counts.
Korte has provided mock ups for 20 different scenarios based on what the league’s number of players ends up being. There are even a couple of scenarios that has the Cowboys still getting a fifth rounder for losing Lewis to the Jaguars.
The league generally announces the comp pick awards a few days into the new league year, which is March 11 for 2026.
Updated Cowboys Draft Pick Projections
The Cowboys now know all of their draft picks that are assigned by virtue of performance. The shift from having Lewis in the mix to Cooks drops the value of Dallas’ second comp pick around 40 slots.
1.12 – Cowboys’ own pick
1.20 – Cowboys pick from Parsons’ trade
4.112 – Cowboys’ own pick
5.150 – Cowboys’ own pick
5.177 – Expected comp pick for Lawrence
6.215 – Expected comp pick for Cooks
7.225 – Cowboys’ pick from Kansas City Chiefs