Legendary football philosopher Bill Parcells once said, “You are what your record says you are.”
Texas Longhorns are 5-2 and one loss away from probable College Football Playoff expulsion.
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Texas head football coach Steve Sarkisian looks on during a game against Kentucky on Oct. 18, 2025, at Kroger Field in Lexington.
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MORE CEDDY; Why Texas is a CFP long shot
As they enter a enter a critical phase of his fifth season, Steve Sarkisian and his staff should get credit for staying the course even though it’s starting to become evident this team isn’t what many of us believed it would be in the preseason.
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The record isn’t ideal, but the expectations remain over the roof in Longhorn Nation with Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning front and center. Sarkisian loves that the base is hungry for another natty and that’s a good thing since the Horns have climbed from 5-7 in 2021 to consecutive national semifinal appearances.
MORE HORNS: Five things to know about Mississippi State
“When that becomes the standard, then we all hold ourselves to that standard,” Sarkisian said Monday. “We’re going on the road for the fourth straight week. We’re getting on an airplane to go play a game, in a hotel that’s not our own and that’s pretty challenging too, not only for young people but the coaches and everybody involved.”
Sark has raised the bar here and it’s a reason there’s panic in large parts of the fan base following an SEC road win. The prevailing thought coming out of Saturday’s 16-13 overtime escape at Kentucky is that the Horns are guilty of playing down to the competition.
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It’s more accurate to say the Longhorns are a middle-of-the pack SEC team that can lose to anybody in this league. Upsets happen on a weekly, but we’ve arrived at the point where the truth is right in front of us.
Texas beats Kentucky nine times out of 10, but the Horns aren’t miles better. Some are judging this team based on the program’s tradition and what has happened over the last two seasons instead of looking at who it is now. If Texas loses Saturday at Mississippi State, it will still be an upset, but not a complete shock because the Horns haven’t shown an ability to steamroll SEC competition over the first three games. And it’s a small sample size, but Arch has struggled in true road games.
Worse yet, they fell short in marquee road games against Ohio State and Florida, albeit at the Horseshoe and Swamp, two of the harshest road environments in the country.
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Texas (5-2, 2-1) is a solid club, but the Horns aren’t special. Like the Big Tuna said, you are what your record says you are.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16) and offensive lineman Brandon Baker after a win against Kentucky on Oct. 18, 2025, at Kroger Field in Lexington.
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Did Steve Sarkisian miss his best chance for a natty?
Some of you read in this space that the 2024 team was Sark’s best chance to win a national championship because he had experienced, talented playmakers all over the place. The loss to Ohio State after being 1 yard from tying it up late in the fourth quarter could go down as the one that got away when his final story is written.
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Quarterback Quinn Ewers wasn’t Colt McCoy, but he was good enough to get the program to the doorstep of an appearance in the national title game in consecutive seasons and he made his bones with some clutch road performances in wins over Alabama and Michigan.
Plus he had All-Americans in his locker room.
Dec 21, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) and Quinn Ewers (3) against the Clemson Tigers during the CFP National playoff first round at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
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The 2025 team isn’t an offensive juggernaut. Playmakers like Matthew Golden, Gunnar Helm, Jaydon Blue and left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. — a human wall who helped keep Ewers upright for three years — are in the pros and we’re supposed to believe the Horns were going to cut and paste last season’s success and keep it moving with a first-year starter at quarterback?
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And don’t forget the defensive stars that have departed: Jahdae Barron, Andrew Mukuba, Barryn Sorrell, Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins aren’t walking into that locker room anytime soon.
Yes, this writer was part of the preseason hype machine that had the Horns accomplishing great things, though I fell short of anointing Manning as a preseason Heisman pick.
Reality can be a real kick in the Levi’s, but now is the time to trust our eyes.
The Horns are mediocre on offense, exceptional on defense and becoming a force on special teams thanks to return man Ryan Niblett. That’s the formula for a good eight- or nine-win team, but the lack of game-breakers on offense makes Texas a target for a team like 8½-point underdog
Mississippi State that will take the field believing it can make the Longhorns the lead highlight on their own offseason hype video.
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Staying on an even keel helps in a tough road game and with the cowbells clanging, the Horns will need the same steely resolve that got them out of Northern Kentucky with a win.
Arch Manning can still be great, but probably not this year
Until Manning becomes a dog capable of putting the team on his back, the Horns will always be a question mark.
I still believe he will be much better next season as these struggles make it unnecessary to consider leaving for the NFL draft.
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Sarkisian hasn’t developed Manning as fully as any of us expected in two-plus seasons and now the Horns have been reduced to a ball-control attack, a reality that should scare the spit out of fans given the offenses the Horns are about to face over these next five games.
The days of 45-10 Big 12 conference wins are in the past. In this league, a 23-6 win is welcomed, but there will come a day when the Horns face an opponent capable of lighting it up and only then will we fully know if they can make some real noise in the SEC race.
If we were sitting down for an adult beverage — and I enjoyed several conversations with Longhorn fans in Kentucky — my advice would be to just enjoy the season and be thankful the program is relevant again.
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The rest will take care of itself.
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