COLLEGE STATION — Following a tough road loss, things don’t get much easier for Texas A&M basketball.
The Aggies (19-9, 9-6 SEC) fell Wednesday to Arkansas and are now set to host Texas, which is coming off a tough loss to Florida.
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With five losses in their last 10 games, the Aggies cannot afford to lose at home against the Longhorns. A&M beat Texas (17-11, 8-7) on the road.
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As of Tuesday, the Aggies were a nine seed in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, one spot better than a week ago. A lighter resume that includes no wins against ranked teams puts more emphasis on Saturday’s game against Texas.
A&M still appears to be in the mix for a spot in the field with a win. The Longhorns have lost two in a row after a five-game winning streak and were projected as a 10-seed in Lunardi’s latest projection.
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Will Texas A&M find a way to sweep its rival? Here are three things to know about the Longhorns, plus a prediction of Texas A&M vs. Texas:
Texas A&M Aggies forward Rashaun Agee (12) dunks the as Texas Longhorns guard Jordan Pope (0) leaps to defend during the first half of Lone Star Showdown, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026 at the Moody Center in Austin. (Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman via AP)
Sara Diggins/Associated Press
Longhorns an efficient offensive team
Nothing Texas does offensively is spectacular, but if nothing else, it’s consistent.
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Only Arkansas (50.5%) ranks higher in SEC field goal percentage than the Longhorns (49.5%). They’re sixth in scoring (86.3), 3-point percentage (35.4%) and free-throw percentage (74.9%). They’re seventh in rebounding, with 38.0 per game.
The main issues hampering Texas are it’s 3-point defense, fouling and its ability to protect the basketball. The Longhorns are last in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.11) and 15th in turnover margin (-1.29). The Longhorns are also 14th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.1%) and 13th in opponent free-throw attempts (654).
MORE: Texas A&M basketball vs Arkansas: Aggies fall in SEC road test
Xavier transfer leading way for Texas
Only three times in conference play did Dailyn Swain score fewer than the 17 points he scored Jan. 17 against A&M. The Aggies did their best to hold the SEC’s seventh-leading scorer to 6-for-11 from the field and 0-for-2 from beyond the arc.
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The former Xavier transfer has eclipsed 20 points nine times this season, including in each of the last four games. He’s scored 30 or more points twice, both against Mississippi State (34) and Auburn (30).
More than just a scorer, Swain is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while shooting 56.2% from the field. The 6-foot-8 wing leads the team in minutes, averaging 31.7 per game.
Texas Longhorns forward Dailyn Swain (3) drives to the hoop as Florida Gators guard Isaiah Brown (20) defends in the second half as the Longhorns play the Florida Gators at the Moody Center in Austin, Feb. 25, 2026.
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman
A&M aims for first season sweep in 40 years
Granted, the two rivals stopped playing annually from 2012 until 2024; 40 years is still a long time.
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The Aggies won three straight matchups ending in 1986. During the three-game stretch, A&M took down the Longhorns twice in the 1985-86 season. Texas returned the favor with three consecutive wins of its own.
A&M trails the Longhorns all-time, 61-82, and is 37-27 at home and 19-47 on the road.
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Texas A&M basketball vs Texas prediction
Texas A&M, 90-87. Each team needs a win for its NCAA Tournament resume, and whoever loses will probably need a run at the SEC Tournament to make the field. The rivalry seemingly produces thrillers, with each of the past three games being decided by 10 total points. A&M beat Texas on the road this year and will use the home crowd to lift it to a one-possession win.
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Reach Texas A&M beat reporter Tony Catalina via email at Anthony.Catalina@statesman.com.