Keagan Smith details his prediction and pick for Saturday’s Texas Longhorns vs. Texas A&M Aggies college basketball matchup.

We’re closing out February with a massive college basketball slate on Saturday with some intriguing matchups across the schedule. There’s a Lone Star State showdown in the afternoon between the Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies, setting up an SEC-sized duel between rivals. This one tips off at 4 p.m. EST.

Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Texas vs. Texas A&M on Saturday, February 28.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction, preview

Texas Longhorns

These Longhorns are just 8-7 in SEC play but hold a 17-11 overall record. With three games remaining, a significant rise in the conference picture remains highly unlikely and they’ve dropped both of their last two outings to Florida and Georgia as well. Granted, they’re competitive at times with a 5-8 record against Quad 1 rosters and a set of four ranked wins, so Texas can play up to competition when everything is clicking.

The program sits 31st in the KenPom rankings with a +20.39 NETRTG. The Longhorns lean heavily on one side of the ball with an elite offense — if they’re the first team to 80 points, they’ve got a shot. They average 83.3 PPG with the sixth-best ORTG in Division I, shooting 48.7% from the field and 35.1% from three. They also sit top five in both FTA and FTM per game as well with the second-highest FTA/FGA ratio of any team. The 11.8 assists and a paltry 1.124 AST/TO ratio won’t do much to impress, but this is a high-flying unit even if the ball movement isn’t stellar. Texas brings down 37.2 rebounds per game, but an opponent PPG average of 75.6 and the 127th-ranked DRTG mean that it’s generally shootout or bust for this group.

Dailyn Swain looks excellent as the primary scorer with 18.0 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest, also pitching in 1.8 steals. Matas Vokietaitis contributes 15.6 points and 6.9 boards. Tramon Mark and Jordan Pope also average 13.1 and 13.0 PPG, respectively.

Texas A&M Aggies

Meanwhile, the Aggies have experienced similar peaks and valleys this season. They’re only 9-6 in conference play but are 19-9 on the full campaign. While A&M did drop its last game to Arkansas, it holds a 4-3 record against Quad 2 sides like Texas and is 4-6 against Quad 1 teams as well.

Texas A&M’s standing in the KenPom rankings is at 36th with a +19.64 NETRTG. To an extent, the Aggies are similar to the Longhorns given their elite offense and lackluster defense, needing massive nights in the scoring column to overcome those defensive shortcomings. Their 88.7 PPG are the fifth-most in D1, and they produce 19.0 assists with the 14th-best AST/TO ratio at 1.700. The Ags shoot 46.6% from the field overall and 36.7% from three, emphasizing that long-range volume to the tune of the 14th-most attempts and 11th-most makes from distance. Texas A&M pulls down 37.7 rebounds a game but allows 79.0 PPG, 297th in the nation.

Rashaun Agee leads the roster with 14.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, but there are four double-digit scorers behind him. Marcus Hill and Rylan Griffen post 11.1 and 11.0 points, while Ruben Dominguez and Mackenzie Mgbako average 10.8 and 10.4 PPG, respectively.

Texas vs. Texas A&M pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas A&M as a 3.5-point favorite at home with the game total set at 163.5 combined points.

How’s that for a high total, huh? That mark is tied for tops on today’s slate, which at first glance would possibly incentivize taking the under. In the first meeting between these sides earlier this season, the Aggies beat the Longhorns 74-70 as well — hardly up to par with the shootout that’s expected in this rematch. A&M notably shot 51% from the field in that one and 40% from three, while Texas went just 42% overall and 29% from deep. Perhaps more importantly, both teams went under their average mark in FGA with 53 apiece. On the full campaign, the Longhorns get up 57.2 FGA while the Aggies post 64.4.

I do project a little bit of additional shot volume on Saturday, and given a better shooting night from Texas, it’s still feasible for these rosters to combine to go over the total. Something along the lines of 84-80 would be just enough to do it, and with neither defense playing particularly well, I fully expect a shootout in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Over 163.5 points (-105)