With nearly 35% of the state vote tallied so far, Texas Rep. James Talarico is leading U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett by nearly five points.

The Democratic race for the Senate nomination had only three candidates: Crockett, Talarico, and Ahmed R. Hassan. With 34% of the vote counted, Talarico has nearly 52% to Crockett’s 47%.

On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is likely headed to a runoff with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Under Texas law, if no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote in a primary, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff election scheduled for May 26. Early voting in a runoff is set for May 18 through May 22. If a runoff margin is narrow, candidates may request a recount under rules outlined by the Texas Secretary of State’s Office.

An NBC News analysis says Democrats need to flip a net of just three House seats in the fall to take back control. It found that Democrats have an uphill battle to retake the Senate, where they need a net gain of four seats. They’ll have to successfully defend every seat the party currently holds, and flip four more on highly competitive and even outright Republican terrain.

Talarico was first elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 2018 and was named one of Texas Monthly’s Top 10 Best Legislators. He made headlines in recent days after his interview with Stephen Colbert aired on YouTube instead of CBS, in light of what Colbert characterized as the network’s fear of FCC blowback, drawing attention and fueling his fundraising on the first day of early voting.

Crockett has represented Texas’s 30th Congressional District since January 2023 and was named to the Root 100 List in 2021 for her voting rights advocacy. 

Hassan owns a mortgage and real estate company in Katy and has previously sought federal and county office in Texas, as well as the U.S. Senate in Minnesota.

What happens next

The winner of the Democratic U.S. Senate primary will face the Republican nominee in the Nov. 3 general election. Early voting for the general election is scheduled for Oct. 19 through Oct. 30.