Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for Saturday’s college basketball matchup between the Houston Cougars and Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Houston Cougars will visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday, meeting for the first time this season in the Big 12 regular season finale.
Houston enters as a hefty 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 148.5 points.
Houston vs. Oklahoma State prediction, preview
Houston ranks seventh in the AP Poll with a 25-5 overall record and 13-4 mark in Big 12 play. The program suffered a tough three-game skid against Iowa State, Arizona, and Kansas. But it rebounded with a pair of convincing victories over Colorado and Baylor in its last two games. The Cougars are 15-15 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 18 of 30 games.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad ranks 143rd in the nation in scoring with 77.5 points per game, also sitting 32nd in offensive rating, 203rd in field-goal percentage, and 180th in three-point percentage. Where the team truly shines is on defense, as the Cougars are limiting opponents to the second-fewest points per game in the country (62.3). Houston also ranks 10th in defensive rating, 23rd in opponent field-goal percentage, and 55th in opponent three-point percentage.
Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has emerged as Houston’s offensive engine, leading the team with 16.6 points and 5.2 assists per game. Emanuel Sharp provides more experience in the backcourt, adding 15.9 points while leading the Big 12 with an 87.7% free-throw percentage. Milos Uzan also averages double figures, contributing 11.5 points and 4.1 assists. Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler round out the starting lineup and play key roles down low.
Oklahoma State holds an 18-12 record this season with a 6-11 mark in conference play. The program is coming off a 111-104 overtime win on the road against UCF, but has dropped six of its last eight matchups. The Cowboys are 13-17 against the spread and are 15-15 on the over/under.
Steve Lutz’s team ranks 26th in the nation with 84.2 points per game, also sitting 130th in offensive rating, 132nd in field-goal percentage, and 177th in three-point percentage. But they’ve struggled immensely on the other end. Oklahoma State ranks 351st out of 365 D1 programs in opponent scoring (82.5 points per game), while sitting 245th in defensive rating, 227th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 279th in opponent three-point percentage.
Anthony Roy averages a team-high 16.7 points, along with 3.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 39.7% from beyond the arc. Parsa Fallah adds 14.7 points and six rebounds while shooting a clean 40% from deep — but he’s out for the season after recently suffering a torn ACL. Vyctorius Miller and Jaylen Curry each also average in double figures, while Kanye Clary, Christian Coleman, and Isaiah Coleman also play notable roles in the rotation.
Houston vs. Oklahoma State pick, best bet
These teams are complete opposites stylistically. Houston relies on its defensive identity, while Oklahoma State plays at a high pace to rack up lofty point totals.
Houston hit some adversity when it dropped three consecutive games for the first time since 2017. But it has shown resilience and seems to have returned to its dominant form of late. Houston is 9-8 against the spread in conference play and 3-3 ATS as away favorites this season.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 7-11 against the spread at home. The Cowboys are 7-10 ATS in conference play and 3-4 against ranked opponents. They edged out UCF in their previous game but have lost six of their last eight, many of which have been lopsided. They’re just 2-6 against the spread during that stretch.
Oklahoma State is further strained by the sidelining of Parsa Fallah, the team’s leading rebounder and second-leading scorer. Facing a tenacious Houston team that attacks the glass with physicality, his absence should be felt even further.
Oklahoma State has been trending in the wrong direction, and it’ll now enter arguably its toughest test of the season. Expect Houston to dominate the boards and dictate the pace. Albeit a wide spread, the Cougars have secured 15 of their 25 wins by at least 13.5 points.
Count on the Cougars to take full control of this matchup and end their regular season in dominant fashion.