The legal negotiation period for free agency will begin at noon ET on March 9, and players can officially sign with new teams starting at 4 p.m. ET on March 11. The opening of free agency kicks of desperate scramble between teams for the best free agents, which makes this a good time to remember that desperation often leads to dumb decisions in the NFL, and this year perhaps more than most, as Matthew Berry of NBC Sports writes in his “Most Interesting Things I Heard At 2026 NFL Combine” column.

Last note that one agent said to me. “Gonna be a really interesting free agency. 10 new head coaches, 20 new coordinators, so much turnover this year that staffs haven’t had enough time to do film work/research/scheme fit for everyone available.”

I asked him if he thought that meant there would be some delayed signings or more mistakes than normal as teams just rush in and worry about “missing out” even if they haven’t done a proper amount of research? He said “I don’t know. I just know it’s gonna be wild and weird.”

On March 9, hundreds of free agents will become available, and all of them share one defining characteristic: their old team did not want to re-sign them. Perhaps because the team didn’t want to pay the price the player is demanding, perhaps because the player is too old/injured/ineffective, perhaps because the player has fallen out of favor with a new coaching staff, perhaps the player was no longer a scheme fit; whatever the reason, the fact that their old team didn’t want them anymore should make every acquiring team wary of the free agents on offer. Here are a eight common free agency mistakes the Cowboys should be particularly wary of in 2026:

1. The pass rusher coming off a big year

We know that historically pass rushers coming off a big year in terms of sacks tend to regress to the mean in the following year. The problem with free agent pass rushers who are coming off a big performance is that teams will pay them in 2026 like it’s still 2025. And that will almost inevitably not end well for the acquiring teams.

Of the 16 highest-paid edge rushers in free agency, only five were able to improve on their sack total from the previous year with their new team, one maintained his level, and ten saw a drop in their sack totals. Understanding that sacks are an incomplete metric to measure an edge rusher, this is still concerning. Overall production from this group of premier pass rushers dropped from 84 to 63 sacks, a drop of 25%. For the ten players that weren’t able to at least maintain their sack total, production dropped from 56 to 22 sacks, a decline of 60%. If you were paying premium dollar for an eight-sack guy and only got three sacks in return, would you feel you made a good investment?

This of course in an exercise you can repeat for almost any stat and end up with similar results. It’s called regression to the mean and it occurs in almost all data sets that compare one period to another.

Ideally you want to find players you can pay for potential instead of past performance (which they are unlikely to repeat) – though that is not easily done in free agency.
Last year, the Cowboys signed three edge rushers to moderate deals. Dante Fowler signed a one-year, $6.0 million deal, Jadeveon Clowney got a $3.5 million one-year deal, and Payton Turner signed a $2.5 million one-year deal. Fowler only got three sacks, Clowney got 8.5, and Turner spent the year on IR. That’s a combined 11.5 sacks for a combined annual contract value of $12 million.

My pocket calculator tells me that’s the equivalent of almost $1 million per sack. Compare that dollar-per-sack ratio to any of the free agents above, and the Cowboys got a better deal than almost any other team investing in a premier free agent. I am well aware that this didn’t help the defense in any shape of form, but in the salary cap era, spending your money wisely is generally a good strategy.

While we are inundated with “Maxx Crosby/Trey Hendrickson to the Cowboys” stories, if the Cowboys are going spend big money on a free agent edge rusher, chances are they’ll look at a guy who’s on Bill Barnwell’s third tier of pass rushers, which he calls “Capable starters.”

Free agents: Joey Bosa, Bills; K’Lavon Chaisson, Patriots; Khalil Mack, Chargers; Boye Mafe, Seahawks; Odafe Oweh, Chargers; Kwity Paye, Colts; Jaelan Phillips, Eagles