EL PASO, Tx., March 9, 2026: A review of the ballots cast on Election Day for the Justice of the Peace 5 race reveals that the third-place finisher, Monica Teran, can push second place Dora Oaxaca out of the runoff against the incumbent Lucilla “Lucy” Najera with votes yet to be counted.
Tuesday’s election was mired by technical problems with voter check-ins that led to confusion and delay in voters casting ballots. Because of the confusion, El Paso Judge Lyda Ness Garcia issued a temporary injunction ordering the El Paso Elections Department to extend voting by an hour, until 8:00pm.
Voters who voted after 7:00pm cast provisional ballots. The provisional ballots have not been counted.
It is not known how many provisional ballots were cast because elections officials are waiting on a court ruling later this month to see if the ballots will be counted towards the results. However, some estimates suggest that there may be as many as 5,000 ballots yet to be counted.
A provisional ballot only ensures that a voter is not disfranchised because of polling station issues or because the voter’s status is uncertain at the time the ballot is cast. Once the voter’s status is ascertained, their vote is either counted or discarded depending on the circumstances.
In the case of the extended period for Tuesday’s election, the courts must determine if the ballots cast after the end of the voting period will be counted. It is the Texas Supreme Court that will ultimately make the decision. El Paso election officials have until today to decide whether to accept or reject the provisional ballots. But legal challenges can extend the deadline to have the Court weigh in.
When a Dallas judge extended the voting period until 9:00pm on Tuesday – because of precinct confusion – the Texas Supreme Court ordered that the ballots cast after 7:00pm be separated from the regular ballots, turning them into provisional ballots.
Dallas election officials reported on Wednesday that there are 2,316 provisional ballots that have not been counted.
In the case of El Paso, unlike Dallas, the problem at the polling stations was a technical issue where voters could not be electronically checked in to cast their ballots. The El Paso voters were not prevented from casting a ballot but only delayed. The judge’s order to extend the voting period by an hour seems to be about accommodating voters whose votes may have been delayed due to technical problems.
The Texas Supreme Court has not intervened in the El Paso voting extension.
Unlike Dallas officials, the El Paso Elections Department has not released the number of provisional ballots that have not been counted. Sources have told El Paso Herald Post that election officials are waiting on the courts to decide.
Will the Provisional Ballots Make a Difference to the Outcomes
In most races, the provisional ballots, if counted, will not affect the outcome of most races, except for the contentious Justice of the Peace 5 race between the incumbent Najera and challenger Oaxaca Rivera.
An analysis of Election Day voting shows that the third-place finisher in the race, Teran, was four votes shy of second place Oaxaca Rivera during Election Day ballots cast. When all the votes (Absentee, Early, Day) are combined, Teran is 105 votes behind Oaxaca Rivera.
However, Teran was outperforming Oaxaca Rivera on Election Day ballots by 2.44% of the ballots cast. Najera was losing 2.45% of the Election Day ballots while Oaxaca Rivera was losing 0.53% of the votes. Teran was outperforming both top two finishers.
El Paso political consultant, Chris Hernandez, who is running the Najera campaign told us yesterday in an email that “it’s important that every vote is counted,” adding that “doing so might not be favorable, but it’s absolutely the right thing to do.”
Depending on the number of provisional ballots cast in the district, the margin for Teran is small enough that she could get enough provisional ballots to put her into the runoff against Najera. However, that will depend on what action El Paso election officials take today, or whether someone takes the matter to court regarding the counting of the provisional ballots. The Texas Supreme Court can choose to weigh in as well independently.
As of this morning, there appears to be no challenges filed with the courts.
In other election news, an analysis of the election shows that El Paso voters performed worse than most Texas voters.
El Paso Voter Turnout Among Worst in Texas
Local news headlines proclaimed that El Paso voters turned out in higher numbers than in previous primaries. While El Paso voter turnout increased by 17.41%, it was one of the worst voter turnouts across Texas in Tuesday’s primaries.
Only Eastland, Ector and Winkler county voters performed worse than El Paso voters with turnouts respectively of 11.08%, 13.73% and 17.9%. Rural Howard County equaled El Paso’s voter turnout. While voting increased in Texas, almost every rural voter across Texas performed better than the El Paso’s voters.
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