DALLAS — As severe weather season begins across Texas, emergency planners and storm experts are examining a sobering scenario: what could happen if a powerful EF-5 tornado struck a densely populated area of North Texas.

The scenario was among the key discussions at the annual conference hosted by the Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA), held this year at the University of Texas at Arlington. The event brought together meteorologists, emergency managers and regional planners to study potential worst-case scenario weather events and how communities can prepare for them.

“DFW has the potential for the most impactful tornado event in history because of its size, population density and placement in the tornado frequency map,” said Martin Lisius of TESSA.

Texas frequently experiences extreme weather, including powerful tornadoes and devastating floods such as the Hill Country flooding in 2025. Storm experts say these events highlight the need for constant preparation and improved forecasting.

At the conference, TESSA worked with the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) to analyze what would happen if a violent EF-5 tornado struck a major city in the Dallas–Fort Worth area, including locations like Arlington.

“This would be bad no matter what. But we want to look at the data and see what’s going on,” said Scott Rae with NCTCOG.

Using historical tornado paths as references, planners create detailed maps and simulations showing how a similar storm could move through modern-day cities. The models allow experts to estimate potential effects, including fatalities, debris, property damage and logistical challenges.

“A tornado’s not going to, it’s not going to care about any of this stuff. It’s not going to care about where you want it to go. It is just going to go,” Rae said.

The simulations also factor in real-world variables, including whether a tornado strikes during high-traffic periods such as rush hour on a busy Friday evening in Arlington.

According to planners, an EF-5 tornado striking a portion of Arlington could cause $4.9 billion in damage.

“We’re larger on everything because we have way more to hit, sort of the nature of the metroplex and what’s going on here,” Rae said.

The Dallas–Fort Worth tornado impact scenario has existed since 2000, established just days before an F-3 tornado struck downtown Fort Worth that year.

“It’s a big target in Tornado Alley, and it could happen any day,” Lisius said.

Experts say the number of potential deaths in such a scenario would largely depend on how quickly warnings are issued and how the public responds.

“We are all preparing to help the public, but the public does have to do the right thing,” Lisius said.