Sixth Street is crowded with people at South by Southwest on March 20, 2015. That day, weather station at Camp Mabry recorded about 1.17 inches of rainfall.
Jay Janner
Over the next week, thousands of people will pour into downtown Austin for the annual South by Southwest festivals — and many will experience the city’s weather attending outdoor events or walking between venues to discover a cutting-edge startup or the next big music act.
The event, which began nearly 40 years ago, often gives first-time visitors a taste of what feels like perfect “Chamber of Commerce” weather, and they assume that Central Texas weather is always postcard-worthy.
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Lightning fills the sky and some rain falls over South by Southwest festivalgoers on March 18, 2016, in Austin, Texas.
Erika Rich
SXSW typically falls around spring break, during the second and third weeks of March, when temperatures in Austin are usually quite pleasant, with average mornings mildly cool in the lower 50s and afternoons comfortably warm in the lower 70s.
However, that hasn’t always been the case — which isn’t surprising to Austinites. We know that March is a transition month from winter to spring, which traditionally begins with the equinox on March 20.
Austin has seen its fair share of wild weather during this time of year, ranging from subfreezing nights to near triple-digit temperatures, along with heavy downpours, large hail and intense lightning storms — even during SXSW.
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More than 3,000 lighting strikes occurred with this line of storms that moved through Central Texas on March 16, 2023.
National Weather Service
On March 16, 2023, for example, Mother Nature put on her own version of a rock concert when a strong thunderstorm moved into Austin one evening. While the storm didn’t produce hail or wind, it generated an impressive amount of lightning, about three strikes per second, accompanied by a constant low rumble of thunder. Much of the lightning was cloud-to-cloud, according to the National Weather Service, meaning the electrical energy traveled between clouds and never reached the ground.
The Moody Amphitheater shut down opening night of the Billboard Stage during SXSW that night, and organizers later announced that shows at all outdoor venues were paused because of weather.
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A strong cold front hits the Austin area on March 11, 2022, bringing a rare springtime freeze during the first weekend of the South by Southwest series of festivals.
Briana Sanchez
In 2016 and 2018, strong cold fronts blasted through Central Texas with a line of storms that produced very large hail. In 2016, there were 24 reports of hail from penny-size to ping pong ball-size, especially in Burnet County. In 2018, monster hail fell in Bastrop County ranging from 3 inches, or baseball-size, to 5.5 inches, or DVD-size hail.
We’ve also had our fair share of extreme temperatures. During the last SXSW festival, on March 14, 2025, Austin’s temperature that day soared to a scorching 96 degrees. That was the hottest SXSW temperature recorded in the past 15 years. The coldest? That also happened only recently on March 12, 2022, when temperatures plunged to 28 degrees that morning.
High pressure will build in Texas behind the storm system on Wednesday with drier and cooler air for the rest of the work week.
Weather Prediction Center
The wettest SXSW was in 2012 when seven of the 10 days of the festival recorded rainfall. The highest daily rainfall during any SXSW occurred on March 9, when 1.27 inches of rain fell.
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What about this year?
After a large system of low atmospheric pressure moves east of Texas, high pressure will build into the region and bring gorgeous weather just in time for the first day of SXSW on Thursday. Clear skies are expected, with morning temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Afternoon temperatures will climb to seasonable levels near 70 degrees under plenty of sunshine, with north winds occasionally gusting up to 25 mph.
A cold front will arrive in Texas on Sunday. Cooler temperatures will settle in behind it on Monday with highs in the 60s in Central Texas.
Pivotal
By the weekend, winds will shift back to the south and temperatures will warm significantly. Highs are expected to soar into the 80s and could even approach 90 degrees by Sunday. Sunshine will dominate the forecast, with south winds between 5 and 15 mph and occasional gusts up to 20 mph.
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Beyond the weekend, we are watching a cold front that will move across Texas early next week with a significant cool down on Monday with morning lows in the 40s and afternoon high in the 60s.
Temperatures will stay seasonable for a few days before warming back into the 80s just as SXSW wraps up.