What are Dallas’ chances of landing No. 1 pick in NBA draft?

While the 2025-26 season hasn’t been a great one for the Dallas Mavericks, the team has a good chance of landing a premium pick in the 2026 NBA draft.

Luckily for Dallas, the team has run into some recent good luck in the draft lottery. The Mavericks won last year’s lottery despite having just a 1.8% chance of drawing the No. 1 pick. That put them in a prime position to select Cooper Flagg.

Dallas Mavericks forward Khris Middleton, left, handles the ball against Memphis Grizzlies...

Will the Mavericks’ lottery luck carry into 2026? Below, we’ll take a look at Dallas’ chances at landing the No. 1 pick and where the squad is currently projected among lottery teams:

Mavericks

Mavericks’ odds to land the No. 1 overall pick in 2026

(According to Tankathon.com, as of March 12)

Mavericks’ record: 22-44

Rank in the Western Conference: 12th

Rank in the NBA: 24th

Chance at the No. 1 pick: 7.5%

Chance at a top-four pick: 31.9%

Teams ahead of Dallas: Indiana, Sacramento, Washington, Brooklyn, Utah and New Orleans (whose pick would go to Atlanta).

A look at the current lottery order

(According to Tankathon.com, as of March 12)

RankTeamRecordChances at the No. 1 pick (based on current position)1Pacers15-5114.0%2Kings16-5114.0%3Wizards16-4914.0%4Nets17-4912.5%5Jazz20-4610.5%6Hawks (Pick from Pelicans)22-45 (New Orleans’ current record)9.0%7Mavericks22-447.5%8Grizzlies23-426.0%9Bucks27-383.8%10Bulls27-383.7%11Trail Blazers31-352.0%12Warriors32-331.5%13Hornets34-331.0%14Thunder (Pick from 76ers)35-31 (Philadelphia’s current record)0.5%How does the NBA draft lottery work?

Here’s a breakdown from our Mike Curtis from last year’s lottery:

Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1-14, are placed in a hopper, with the potential for 1,001 different four-ball draws. Each team is assigned a certain number of combinations based on their final record.

At least three four-number combinations will be drawn, slotting teams with picks Nos. 1-3 in this year’s draft.

In the event that a team has one of its combinations drawn more than once, the balls are drawn again until three different teams have been determined.

What’s the Mavericks’ draft lottery history?

Before 2025, the Mavericks didn’t have the best luck in the NBA draft lottery. Last year marked the first time in 17 lottery appearances that Dallas drew a pick better than its odds dictated.

Here’s a look at the history and the players Dallas has selected or traded for via the draft lottery:

2025: Cooper Flagg

– Mavs win 2025 NBA draft lottery, have shot to take Cooper Flagg at No. 1

2023: Dereck Lively II, from Oklahoma City in exchange for Cason Wallace

– Mavericks keep their pick, miss out on Victor Wembanyama

2019: No one

– Mavs miss out on top 5, convey selection to Atlanta to complete Doncic deal

2018: Luka Doncic, from Atlanta in exchange for Trae Young

– Doncic-Young deal may have finally turned Dallas’ luck around

2017: Dennis Smith Jr. (9)

– In Smith, Mavs hoped for a point guard of the future

2013: Kelly Olynyk (13)