Meteorologists are keeping an eye on a major climate pattern that could return later this year and influence the weather across Texas.
Conditions in the Pacific Ocean are beginning to shift, and some climate models suggest El Niño could develop later in 2026, and that neutral conditions are likely to hit May-July.
While it is still early, forecasters say the pattern could eventually affect rainfall and temperatures across parts of the southern United States, including West Texas.
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What El Niño Is
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
During El Niño, ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal. Those warmer waters can shift jet streams and storm patterns across the globe.
These events usually occur every few years and often influence the weather across North America.
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Why Forecasters Are Watching Now
The world has recently been under the influence of a La Niña pattern, which tends to bring hotter and drier conditions to parts of the southern U.S.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Niña is expected to weaken this spring. Climate outlooks show a transition to neutral conditions during the summer, with the possibility of El Niño developing later in the year.
What This Could Mean For Lubbock
If El Niño does develop, it could slightly shift weather patterns across Texas.
Historically, El Niño years can bring:
Increased chances of rain across the southern U.S.
Slightly cooler temperature patterns compared to La Niña years (thanks to cloud coverage)
More active storm systems later in the year
That does not guarantee specific weather in Lubbock, but it can increase the odds of wetter conditions across the region.
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Gallery Credit: Chad Hasty