Central Texas on Wednesday is transitioning away from the final freeze of traditional winter, steadily shifting from unseasonably frigid weather to unseasonably high temperatures by the end of the week.
Early Tuesday, temperatures dipped into the upper 20s and low 30s across Central Texas — and exactly freezing (32 degrees) at Camp Mabry, Austin’s main weather observation site — which were the region’s coldest readings since early February.
While the average last freeze in Austin at Camp Mabry typically occurs around Feb. 15, the average at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport falls closer to March 14. Late-season freezes are still possible, but they’ve become increasingly rare in recent years.
In fact, this latest cold snap ranks among the most delayed freeze in Austin’s history. The last time a freeze occurred this late in Austin was almost 40 years ago on March 31, 1987, while the latest freeze on record dates all the way back to April 9, 1914 — more than a century ago.
If you’re the betting type, put all your money on this being our last freeze until next fall. Temperatures will continue to climb this week, with morning temps in the 60s and afternoon temps reaching the 90s by the weekend. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center also anticipates warmer temperatures than normal through April 10, which includes Easter Sunday.
A system of high atmospheric pressure on Wednesday will continue to shift east of Texas and allow a southerly flow of moisture-rich air off the Gulf of Mexico to return and help warm morning temperatures. Wednesday will still have a cool start, but not as cold as the past few mornings, with temperature ranging from the mid-40s to lower 50s.
By the afternoon, winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will turn more westerly compared to the northerly flow of the past few days, allowing warmer air to spread into the region. Temperatures will climb into the mid-70s to low 80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies and balmy breezes.
Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high pressure will lead to a heat dome, building along the Pacific coast before expanding toward Texas. This will lead to a rapid warming trend over the coming days with temperatures surpassing record levels by the weekend. The latest forecast has 54 record highs in jeopardy across the Lone Star State from Thursday through Sunday.
Records in Austin that could be matched or broken:
The unseasonably warm weather will be interrupted by a weak cold front early next week, followed by another by midweek. While neither front is expected to bring rain, both will deliver gusty north winds and a slight dip in temperatures.