Bryan Armetta shares his preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament game between the Texas Longhorns and Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Two straight March Madness wins have sent #11 Texas (20-14, 9-9) to the Round of 32. The Longhorns, high on talent and inconsistency, are putting it together at the right time. However, they’ll face a massive test on Saturday against #3 Gonzaga (31-3, 16-2). The Bulldogs survived a scare on Thursday, escaping with a nine-point win over Kennesaw State.
Gonzaga enters as 6.5-point favorites (-105) over Texas. The total is set at 146.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Longhorns and Bulldogs.
Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction, preview
It was an impressive 79-71 win for Texas over #6 BYU on Thursday. Despite a late Cougars run, the underdogs controlled this game from start to finish. That was despite a massive 35-point output from freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa. The Longhorns aren’t exactly known for their defense, ranking 86th in that category on KenPom. However, they’ve given up a total of 137 combined points through two March Madness contests. If nothing else, UT wields one of the nation’s tallest rosters. If shots aren’t going down, driving to the paint could prove difficult.
With that being said, Texas does most of its damage on the other end of the floor. This is the 16th-best offense in college basketball according to KenPom. Unlike some other high-powered scoring attacks, this squad isn’t as trigger-happy from three-point range. Instead, they prefer leaning on big men Dailyn Swain (17.6 PPG, 7.5 REB) and Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 PPG, 7.1 REB). Unsurprisingly, the Longhorns get fouled frequently due to their size. The team has garnered the third-most free throw attempts per field goals attempted (45.7). With that being said, Texas took down BYU despite ten fewer makes from the charity stripe. Don’t forget about guard Tramon Mark (13.8 PPG), who hit a First Four game-winner vs. NC State.
It was not the most impressive tournament debut for Gonzaga on Thursday. Mark Few’s crew looked off for most of the first half, eventually pulling away late vs. Kennesaw State. Unsurprisingly, Graham Ike was a monster, delivering 19 points and eight rebounds over 36 minutes. It’s been a phenomenal camapign from the senior, enjoying his second year in Spokane. Through 30 games, he’s recorded 19.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 57% from the field.
On most nights, Ike forms a potent one-two punch with fellow big man Braden Huff (17.8 PPG). Unfortunately, the latter has been ruled out this weekend due to a knee injury. It’s not as if the Zags are loaded with offensive depth, especially without Huff. Tyrion Grant-Foster is the only other player on this roster averaging double-digit points per game.
Unlike some previous Bulldogs squads, this group excels at stifling offenses. They rank ninth on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.8). Gonzaga makes a strong effort on the perimeter, delivering the sport’s 20th-best opponent three-point percentage (30.5%). To boot, the school also limits teams from taking many long-distance shots. Driving isn’t easy either with 6’7″ Grant-Foster and 6’9″ Ike inside the paint.
Texas vs. Gonzaga pick, best bet
In most years, Gonzaga is an absolute lock to reach the NCAA Tournament. However, Huff’s injury looms large entering this matchup. The Bulldogs don’t have an advantage in terms of height, and Texas has the more skilled offensive guards. The favorites are a more well-rounded team, but the Longhorns have more star power taking the court in Mark, Swain and Vokietaitis. UT has the pieces to keep things close on Saturday.
Make sure to follow all the picks from our college basketball team on The CBB Board. You can join and tail picks directly from the DraftKings app, all while enjoying pregame breakdowns from our top hoops analysts!