Texas primary election: View Abbott, Cornyn, Talarico watch parties
1 of 8
Supporters of James Talarico arrive at the candidate’s election night watch party at Emo’s in Austin, Texas, on March 3, 2026. Talarico is running in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
New polling indicates state Rep. James Talarico could be poised to turn Texas blue.
A new poll from Impact Research shows Talarico, D-Austin, with a slight edge over both Republican candidates in the U.S. Senate race — incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton — who are still locked in a tight runoff battle.
The poll was conducted via telephone among roughly 900 likely General Election voters in Texas.
James Talarico greets his supporters after his speech during his election night watch party at Emo’s in Austin, Texas, on March 3, 2026. Talarico is running in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and led his Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in early voting returns.
The poll shows Talarico besting Cornyn by three points, 43% to 41%, while only topping Paxton by one point, 44% to 43%. The latest numbers seem to undermine most Democratic strategists’ theory that Cornyn would make a stronger General Election candidate for Republicans.
Overall, the poll found Republican voters swinging toward Paxton in the upcoming May 26 runoff election by a 16-point margin, with 53% backing Paxton compared to 37% for Cornyn.
Despite that, both remain widely unpopular among Republican voters: 57% of respondents viewed Paxton unfavorably and 60% viewed Cornyn unfavorably. By comparison, Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who is not up for reelection this year, was viewed unfavorably by 52% of respondents.
More: Texas Senate race: Cornyn, Paxton head to runoff to face James Talarico
Independents rated the Republican candidates even worse, with 63% viewing Paxton unfavorably and 65% viewing Cornyn unfavorably.
“Such low ratings among this critical voting bloc will make it very difficult for Paxton or Cornyn to win over the swing voters they need to prevail in November, the poll memo stated.
Adam Powell covers government and politics for the El Paso Times and can be reached via email at apowell@elpasotimes.com.
This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: Texas US Senate race: Talarico edges Republicans in latest poll