Evan Grant’s month-by-month Texas Rangers’ schedule breakdown and season prediction

Skip Schumaker’s Rangers will be tested early in his first season as the manager.

The first six weeks of the schedule might make for the toughest start in all of baseball. They are on the road, where they have not had a winning season since 2016, more than they are at Globe Life Field. And the early schedule is loaded with 2025 playoff teams. It’s imperative the Rangers have their best roster to start the year.

That said, if they can survive the first half of the schedule, they will have a home-heavy second half that could create prime conditions for a strong surge. The question is if it will matter. There is likely to be no treading water this season. If the Rangers struggle in the first half, it may push president of baseball operations Chris Young to act aggressively in being a seller with a lot of high-priced talent to deal.

How do we see things playing out? Well, here’s our annual exercise in predicting the 162-game schedule:

Rangers

MARCH/APRIL

Home/road split: 15/16

What’s notable: It’s a brutally challenging start. That includes opening the season at NLDS participant Philadelphia, visiting the world champion Dodgers and a weekend in their own personal hell, Seattle. In the middle of the month, there is a 10-game West Coast road trip, one of two 10-game trips during the season. They face Seattle, the AL West favorite, six times in the first 22 games. They will be tested. The good news? The last nine games of the month are at home.

Key series: at Seattle, April 17-19. The Rangers were 1-6 at T-Mobile Park last season and are a ghastly 9-38 there since 2020. Want to be more traumatized? They are 4-15 in one-run games there in that stretch. The Rangers managed to score 19 runs over seven games in Seattle a year ago, an average of 2.7 per game. It’s also worth noting that the park, where his brother called home for more than a decade, absolutely vexes Corey Seager. He is a .144 career hitter there with a .439 OPS. As a Ranger, he has one homer in 87 plate appearances in the park over four seasons.

Key number: .440. The Rangers’ road winning percentage in three seasons under Bruce Bochy. It ranked 23rd in the majors. A year ago, they went 4-10 on the road through April, which included three walk-off losses and three one-run losses.

Predicted record: 16-15

MAY

Home/road split: 13/15

What’s notable: The road seems to go on forever. That season-opening stretch against playoff teams? It extends to 27 of the first 40 games thanks to a week-long trip to Detroit and New York to start the month. By Memorial Day, when the Rangers reach the approximate one-third point of the season, they will have played 31 of 52 games on the road with two grueling three-city trips. While the Rangers do finish the month at home, it is in the midst of a 13-game stretch without an off day, which can tax a pitching staff.

Key series: vs. Houston, May 25-28: For the fourth straight season, the Rangers, thanks to this four-game series, will own a one-game edge in the home-and-home series with the Astros. Not that it’s done the Rangers any good. They haven’t won the overall home series against Houston since 2016, getting trounced 97-66 in that, gulp, decade. These two teams owned the AL West from 2015-25, but the balance of power has shifted to the Northwest. The Rangers and Astros could very easily be fighting for a final wild card spot, and controlling this season series could prove the tiebreaker. The teams play seven times in 14 days in May.

Key number: .418. The Rangers’ winning percentage in May the past two seasons. After surviving tough Aprils, the Rangers took a breath. When they exhaled, the air left not just their lungs but their sails, too. They spent the next third of the season trying to play catch-up, all of which left them out of gas for a strong final kick.

Predicted record: 13-15

JUNE

Home/road split: 9/18

What’s notable: The start of the World Cup, next door at AT&T Stadium, plays absolute havoc with the schedule. Three World Cup matches in a week at the end of the month send the Rangers on another 10-game, three-city trip as part of a stretch of 15 days without a scheduled off day. The Rangers haven’t had 18 road games in a single month since May 2023. Ironically, they shredded that month under Bruce Bochy, going 18-9.

Key series: at Miami, June 22-24. It’s a month of reunions for Skip Schumaker, who begins it by going back to St. Louis, where he played most of his career (and, yes, won a World Series in 2011). It also includes three games against San Diego where he spent the early part of his coaching career. But the series at Miami is where Schumaker began his managerial career, winning NL Manager of the Year in 2023, before having the administration pulled out from under him. It wasn’t a happy arrangement. Schumaker says he “idles at 60 mph,” so you can imagine he might be a bit amped up for this series to leave an impression.

Key number: 12. Deficit of home games on the schedule by the end of this month, during which the season’s statistical mid-point is reached in the final week. The first three months have the Rangers playing 49 on the road to 37 at home. If they survive it, they’ll be in position for a huge second-half surge with 58% of their remaining games at Globe Life Field.

Predicted record: 14-13

JULY

Home/road split: 16/8

What’s notable: The Rangers reclaim a huge hunk of their home game deficit. That includes seven games at Globe Life Field against division rivals Houston and Seattle. Those stops are the final trips to Arlington for those AL West foes in 2026. The final six games against them will all be on the road. Hard to quantify the potential value of this, but from July 2-27, the Rangers spend exactly three days away from Arlington. Well, all of them except whoever goes to the All-Star Game in Philadelphia. That much time at home should give guys a good opportunity to catch their breath, catch up with their young families and could pay long-term dividends in the depths of the season.

Key series: vs. Seattle, July 24-27. Can we make it “co-keys?” In the 10 days leading up to the Aug. 3 trade deadline, the Rangers play seven games against their top two foes in the AL West. They spend the weekend after the Mariners’ visit in Houston. If there is any debate about which direction the club is headed, this stretch ought to end the conversation. Either they’ll be in or out. It’s hard to see a middle ground there.

Key number: 78. That’s how many games below .500 the Rangers are against opponents in their own division over the last 10 years. They’ve had only one winning intra-division season (2023 when they went 29-23). The Rangers are 249-327, a .432 winning percentage, in the past decade. One way to change the culture and the vibe: dominate inside the division.

Predicted record: 14-10

AUGUST

Home/road split: 13/15

What’s notable: The longest month of the season will seem even longer thanks to a stretch sparse in off days. From July 24 through Aug. 16, the Rangers will play 32 games in 34 days, then they play another 19 in 20 days. Exhausting. The travel in that stretch is at least manageable; no long flights between cities and no 3 or 4 a.m. arrivals. From Aug. 3-26, the Rangers play 22 straight games against teams that finished .500 or below last season.

Key series: at Milwaukee, Aug. 28-30. The Rangers have not won a game at American Family Fields since 2019. Their only other visit since then was a sweep in 2024. The visit to the Brewers ends the long stretch against teams that were .500 or below in 2025. They’ll get another series against what should be a playoff contender to prep them for the September sprint. Will they be a contender at that point? Or rebuilding?

Key number: 46. Number of homers the Angels’ Mike Trout has hit against the Rangers, the most by any opponent since the team moved to Texas. Even last year, when Trout went just 7-for-44 (.159) against the Rangers, he hit a pair of homers. Will he be healthy and productive enough to play all seven games against Texas in August and become the first guy to reach 50 homers against the franchise?

Predicted record: 16-12

SEPTEMBER

Home/road split: 15/9

What’s notable: The Rangers play only five games inside the AL West, two with the traveling Athletics and three at Seattle. None of their final 15 games are inside the division, so if there is a need to make up ground in the AL West, the opportunities for doubling up with head-to-head matchups are rare. Bottom line: If the Rangers are planning to win the division, it’s best if they have a lead going into the month. Going to be harder to play from behind.

Key series: vs. NY Mets, Sept. 22-24. The last home games of the season also include the return of Marcus Semien. It comes at the end of a nine-game, 10-day homestand that also features Boston and defending AL champ Toronto, which will be challenging, but this series offers the last chance for an exclamation point on the home season and with a hint of intrigue. Will it be a warm reunion with Semien? How many eyes will be focused on any interaction between Corey Seager and his former Ranger teammate? And what of Brandon Nimmo facing his old team? Not to mention the possibility of Jacob deGrom pushing the Rangers closer to a playoff bid by beating his old team. Get your popcorn.

Key number: 2. Games played in September by Corey Seager over the last two seasons combined because of a sports hernia and an appendectomy. If the Rangers are to make the most of their favorable schedule in September and push into the playoffs, it’s essential Seager is part of it.

Predicted record: 13-11

Overall record: 86-76, 2nd AL West, wild card

Summary: We’re going to buy into the improved clubhouse culture as an asset that could allow this team to weather the tough start and allow it to optimize when the schedule turns in their favor. But more importantly, we’re buying that more key guys will rebound offensively than won’t. A lot has to go right for this team to get to the postseason, but not everything. We’re betting that the scales tip a little more in favor of positive outcomes. And we’re betting Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford have true breakout seasons.

The Rangers’ MLB rotation is among baseball’s best. How do their minor league arms look?