San Antonio is not alone. To the north, Austin-Bergstrom International Airport has picked up just 2.08 inches of rain, or 31% of normal for this point in the year. The situation is even more dire farther south. Corpus Christi has recorded only 0.79 inch of rain, while Laredo has measured a paltry 0.06 inch — its driest start in the past 30 years.
Thankfully, spring has arrived, which typically brings increasing rain chances across the region, especially from mid-April through late May. But with rain comes storms. In Texas, April and May is the peak of severe weather season, with the highest number of reports of hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes coming during these two months.
But how stormy will this spring be across South Texas? Weather models are starting to show some positive signs that meaningful rainfall could return. Here’s a look at the latest information.
First, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which provides long-range outlooks and climate monitoring, recently released an update to its spring outlook. However, their outlook for South Texas does not provide many answers, giving San Antonio a 50-50 chance of below- or above-average rainfall this spring.
Long-range weather models are providing a bit more useful information. The European ECMWF ensemble weather model suggests that above-average rainfall is favored for much of Texas during the first half of spring. From April 1 through May 10, it projects between 5 and 6 inches of rain for the San Antonio area — about an inch to 2 inches above average for that period.
The model indicates even higher totals across parts of North and Northeast Texas, where 7 to 10 inches of rain could fall through mid-May.
The American GEFS ensemble model is less aggressive but still leans slightly wetter than normal. It projects about 3 to 3.5 inches of rain for San Antonio during April, which is near to slightly above average for the month.
It’s important to note that long-range ensemble models are not perfect. While slightly above-average precipitation is favored, it is far from a guarantee.
Spring thunderstorms also are often scattered in nature, meaning rainfall totals can vary significantly over short distances. One area may receive several inches of rain from a slow-moving storm, while another just a few miles away remains mostly dry.
While rainfall totals this spring are still a bit questionable, there is more confidence that Texas will continue to experience above-average temperatures.
Both the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble models show that San Antonio temps are likely to be 3 to 4 degrees above average during April, with above-average heat likely to continue into May. The Climate Prediction Center also agrees, giving the Alamo City an 85% chance of near- to above-average temps during spring, and only a 15% chance of below-average temperatures.