By Alex Kimani – Mar 25, 2026, 11:00 AM CDT
Oil prices, including Brent crude and WTI crude, dropped by nearly 4% after headlines emerged about a 15-point Iran peace plan proposed by President Trump, which abruptly stripped out a war-driven risk premium.
Despite the sharp decline in oil prices, U.S. stock markets, including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite, saw broad advances, with the small-cap Russell 2000 outperforming.
The Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicated a sharp turnaround for the U.S. oilfield activity index, swinging from an index of -6.2 in Q4 2025 to a positive 21.0 in Q1 2026, suggesting improving outlooks in the Oil & Gas sector.
A sharp rebound in U.S. oilfield activity is colliding with a sudden geopolitical shock, as the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows energy firms swinging back into expansion just as crude prices plunge roughly 4% on headlines that President Donald Trump has floated a 15-point Iran peace plan, abruptly stripping out part of the war-driven risk premium that had lifted prices more than 30% since late February.
Brent crude for May delivery fell 3.9% to trade at $100.40 per barrel at 11.20 am ET while the corresponding WTI crude contract declined 3.77% to trade at 88.87/bbl. U.S. stock markets were broadly up: the S&P 500 advanced 0.7% to approximately 6,602; Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 316 points (+0.7%) to 46,440, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% to reach roughly 22,001 while the small-cap stock benchmark, the Russell 2000, outperformed with a gain of over 1.5%.
“Just one headline has the potential to send oil prices and Treasury yields meaningfully higher or lower,” analysts at Citi wrote on Wednesday.
The Dallas Fed survey adds another unpredictable element to hyper volatility in oil and gas prices. According to the bank’s latest survey, the business activity index turned positive (indicating expansion) in the first quarter of 2026 to the tune of 21.0, a sharp turnaround from -6.2 posted in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company outlook also improved, advancing to 32.2 in Q1 2026 from -15.2 in Q4 2025 suggesting improving outlooks in the Oil & Gas sector.
Related: 3 Defense Stocks To Replenish America’s Depleting Arsenal
In the meantime, Trump’s peace plan, which reportedly places limits on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and guarantees freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief, remains as unpredictable as oil prices.
Iranian state television broadcast a blunt rejection of the proposal, dismissing Washington’s claims that talks were even underway. A senior military spokesperson said the U.S. was effectively “negotiating with itself,” adding, “People like us can never get along with people like you… no one like us will make a deal with you. Not now. Not ever.” Iranian officials have also described the 15-point framework as “excessive,” insisting any path to ending the war will happen strictly on Tehran’s terms rather than through a U.S.-driven process.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
Download The Free Oilprice App Today
