Education policy debates often focus on short-term questions: How much does a program cost? What happened to test scores this year?
But education is an investment in human capital. The real question is what happens to students over the course of their lives.
In a new analysis, The Long-Run Payoff of Universal ESAs in Texas, Dr. Martin Lueken and Dr. Michael McShane estimate what a universal Education Savings Account (ESA) program could mean not just for today’s students — but for Texas’ long-term economic and social well-being.
Their conclusion: even modest increases in educational attainment could yield substantial long-term benefits for the state.
What We Know About Educational Choice and Attainment
While test score debates often dominate headlines, a growing body of research examines long-term outcomes like:
High school graduation
College enrollment
College completion
Across nine rigorous studies of private school choice programs — including those in Florida, Ohio, Indiana, and Wisconsin — six studies find positive effects on attainment for participating students.
The effects range from:
4 to 15 percentage point increases in college enrollment
1 to 9 percentage point increases in college graduation
Up to 12 percentage point increases in high school graduation
Importantly, recent research also suggests competitive effects: public school students exposed to choice programs may also see gains in college enrollment and graduation.
Attainment matters because it is strongly associated with lifetime earnings, tax contributions, health, and reduced crime.
The Value of a Diploma
Economists have put real numbers behind these outcomes.
High school graduates earn substantially more over their lifetimes than non-graduates, pay more in taxes, live longer and healthier lives, and are less likely to be incarcerated. When researchers Patrick Wolf and Michael McShane combined these private and public benefits, they estimated that each additional high school graduate generates roughly:
$716,000 (2025 USD) per additional graduate in total lifetime value
This conservative figure does not even take into account the students who go to college.
Modeling a Universal ESA in Texas
Lueken and McShane model two realistic participation scenarios for Texas:
A 1.6% take-up rate, aligned with a $1 billion funding cap (about 90,000 students)
A 5% take-up rate, closer to participation levels seen in other states’ universal programs that have been around for several years
They then estimate how even small increases in high school graduation rates would translate into long-term benefits.
The results are significant. Depending on participation levels and graduation gains, the projected long-term impact of a universal ESA in Texas ranges from:
$1.3 billion to $19.8 billion in steady state.
“Steady state” refers to the benefit once the program has matured — when participating students span the full K–12 pipeline.
And again, this projection is conservative because we know that school choice programs are not just associated with higher high school graduation rates but also college enrollment and graduation.
Broader Public School System Effects
The analysis also considers potential benefits for students who remain in public schools. Drawing on recent research from Ohio, the authors model small increases in college enrollment and graduation among public school students exposed to competition.
Because Texas’ public school system serves hundreds of thousands of students each year, even modest percentage gains could translate into very large economic returns over time.
In short, the benefits of choice may extend beyond direct participants.
An Investment in the Future
Education policy is often debated in terms of immediate costs. This analysis invites Texas policymakers to consider long-term value.
The logic of McShane and Lueken’s brief is straightforward:
Higher educational attainment leads to better life outcomes.
Private school choice programs are associated with increases in attainment.
Therefore, a universal ESA is likely to generate long-term social and economic benefits.
Of course, forecasting the future involves uncertainty. That’s why the authors present ranges and model multiple scenarios. But by focusing on steady-state impacts and conservative assumptions, they provide a careful estimate of what is possible.
If the goal is higher earnings, greater tax contributions without raising tax rates, longer and healthier lives, and lower crime, increasing educational attainment is one of the most powerful tools available.
A universal ESA is a powerful investment in just those goals.
Read the full report here.