Graphic by D. Garcia – EVT Sports
This article is the second in a series of articles highlighting roster projections and team predictions for Padres minor league affiliates. We continue the series with the second-highest level below the Majors, with the Double-A San Antonio Missions.
The San Antonio Missions were well on their way to a playoff spot in the first half, but they were arguably hit the hardest by the Padres’ trade deadline moves last season.
This statement could also apply to Fort Wayne, but we’ll get there (foreshadowing…). The Missions have an influx of talent making its way up the system, and will have plenty of returning faces as well. Can this team make a successful push for the Texas League playoffs in a stacked division? Let’s look at the projected roster that will be aiming to do just that.
Graphic by D. Garcia – EVT Sports
The Missions’ roster has a variety of new faces, and some faces who made quick stops in Texas before the season’s end in 2025.
Now, they have a reinforced staff that is set for major development from some of the key figures on the team, including Padres’ No. 1 prospect Ethan Salas. With that being said, here are some predictions for this team related to the players on the roster or the team’s performance as a whole.
1. Ethan Salas AND Braedon Karpathios hit at least 15 home runs
Despite the pitcher-friendly nature of The Wolff, the Missions were able to hit some home runs down there last season. Most memorable was Romeo Sanabria’s walk-off home run back in May, and this season, the Missions will have players who can do that sort of thing.
We begin with Ethan Salas, who came in at No. 1 on our preseason Top 32 prospects list. Salas returned to televised game action at the Spring Breakout game and flashed what he could be both defensively and offensively. The Salassaince, as MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell so eloquently described it, could very well take place in San Antonio. Salas is set to open the season as the team’s starting catcher and has all the runway to succeed.
Salas’ plate discipline did not waver against higher-level arms in the game, which was a microcosm of the player that Salas can be when everything is clicking. While he does not have the elite raw power of other members of this farm system, Salas’s combination of swing path and selectiveness at the plate will allow him to capitalize on mistake pitches or pitches later in counts. While his 10-game sample last season was not his most productive, Salas’ offseason work and showings in camp build the case for all his tools coming together at the plate.
Moving over to Karpathios, the Padres’ No. 10 prospect hit 15 home runs last season, albeit across two levels. Karpathios unlocked his opposite field power after only hitting eight home runs in a comparable sample size at Single-A in 2024. The Pennsylvania-born outfielder also displayed strong bat speed and contact quality last season, including a late-season trip to the Arizona Fall League. His 90th-percentile exit velocities came in at 104-105 mph off the bat, and if he can pull the ball in the air at a more efficient rate than last season, he will be able to tap into his full power upside. Karpathios did struggle against high fastballs in the mid-to-high 90s last season, which could hinder his ability to hit for power, but he has enough power in his swing to take those pitches to the opposite field with extra-base power. If he can eliminate or cut down his previous susceptibility to those pitches, he will be able to clear the 15-home run plateau.
2. Luis Gutierrez finishes the season with a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-4.00 FIP with the Missions
No Padre pitcher saw their stock raised as much as Luis Gutierrez this spring. The left-hander flashed the tools and progress he has made in his development, both in Cactus League play and in Spring Breakout. Gutierrez found his velocity after years of minor injuries, which did not allow him to pitch to his full potential. One does not magically make their way up four levels of the minor leagues without reason, after all. Gutierrez’s 2025 definitely fits under the “breakout” category, as he pitched to a 3.31 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 4.00 xFIP in 125 innings.
He averaged five innings per appearance (25 games, 21 starts), and improved his strikeout rate to 21.8% in a career-high workload. All of this came while he spent half the season averaging 91-93 mph on his fastball. Now, Gutierrez averaged 95.2 mph on his four-seam fastball in Spring Training, with his sinker coming in at 94.9 mph. The left-hander doesn’t generate a ton of ride on his fastball from his lower three-quarter slot, but his offerings all sequence well out of his slot and release. Pitching in another pitcher-friendly environment in San Antonio will allow Gutierrez to remain effective even when trading some of his ability to get ground balls for strikeouts. Since Gutierrez can get whiffs and ground balls at serviceable to above-average rates, he is poised to build upon an already-impressive 2025 campaign.
Credit: Rylan Renteria/ EVT Sports
3. The Missions’ bullpen is one of the Top 5 in the Texas League by the end of the season
The Padres organization has become a relief pitching factory in the eyes of national evaluators, and it is not hard to see why. When assessing the projected pitching staff for the Missions, their bullpen stands out as a strength of the team. Among the list of players likely to pitch late and middle innings for the Missions, each has something that makes their game stand out. Josh Mallitz, who projects as a late-inning arm for this team, brings two impressive secondaries to pair with his mid-90s fastball, and his 60-grade command more than makes up for any perceived lack of overwhelming velocity.
The duo of Andrew Moore and Cole Paplham brings blistering high-90s heat and sharp sliders, albeit with weaker command. Sadrac Franco and Johan Moreno’s sliders graded out well in Spring Training, which could allow them to be successful in their first full seasons at Double-A. Any of the last four arms could be the next Eduarniel Nunez-type of success story. Harry Gustin is one of the most underrated relief prospects in the system, as the former 18th-round pick posted a 1.88 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 62.1 innings last season. Gustin did not allow a run in 12.2 innings of Double-A action in 202, and will likely see himself in back-end situations in 2026, barring a move to a starting role.
4. Ryan Jackson finds his footing at Double-A and finishes the season with an OBP & SLG each over .350.
One of the most interesting players in the Padres’ entire system, Ryan Jackson burst onto the scene in 2025 with his combination of an elite eye at the plate and defensive versatility all over the diamond. Jackson was reaching base at a .442 percentage in Lake Elsinore over 62 games, then was promoted. In 48 games in Fort Wayne, his OBP sat at .357. In 74 at-bats with the Missions, he reached base 27% of the time. This on-base rate was his lowest all year, but was coming at the tail end of his first professional season. Jackson also saw time in the Arizona Fall League, going 10-for-47 (.213) with a gargantuan .424 on-base percentage. He drew 15 walks in the AFL, while striking out 15 times.
If he can limit the strikeouts and keep the plate discipline up, he has every chance to maintain his high-OBP-led profile and make his way to Triple-A or the Majors. Furthermore, Jackson excelled when he was able to pull the ball down the line or plug the gaps. The Wolff is notorious for the deep alleys in left-center and right-center (especially right-center). If Jackson continues to spray the ball to both sides of the field, his speed and baserunning will set him up for further production. Jackson’s success as a leadoff hitter will also trickle over for the rest of the lineup and could be a reason for the Missions’ success this campaign.
The Missions will play a three-game exhibition set against the Mexican League’s Tecolotes De Los Dos Laredos on March 27-29 before opening the season on the road against the Tulsa Drillers on April 2.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
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