Shown is the ECMWF ensemble weather model. The numbers shown on the map represent how far above or below average temperatures are expected to be during the month of April.
WeatherBell
A highly unusual weather pattern — at least for this time of the year — developed across the western United States throughout March. Strong high atmospheric pressure, which typically doesn’t form with as much strength until late spring or early summer, lingered for a large part of the month, bringing lots of sunshine, consistently above-average temperatures and very little rainfall.
The most intense heat was centered over Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. However, record-breaking temperatures were also recorded throughout Texas.
Article continues below this ad
In San Antonio, the average daily high temperature during March was 83.4 degrees, and the average low temperature was 58.9 degrees. Together, that’s an overall average temperature of 71.1 degrees, which is more than 8 degrees above average and ties the warmest March average in San Antonio’s history.
For many Texas cities, it was the same story. Up the Interstate 35 corridor, Austin, Waco and Dallas each recorded their warmest months of March ever. In Dallas, high temps reached at least 80 degrees 21 times during the month, the most ever recorded.
In West Texas, the cities of Abilene, San Angelo, Midland, Lubbock, and Amarillo also broke their March temperature records. Lubbock was especially hot, as its average high temperature of 80.2 degrees in March 2026 beat the previous record for March by nearly 5 degrees.
Article continues below this ad
After such an unusually warm March, will above-average heat continue into April? Here’s a look at the outlook from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, as well as what long-range weather models are suggesting for the next few weeks.
April outlook
Unsurprisingly, above-average temperatures are favored across all of Texas during April, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook. However, overall forecast confidence is lower than in previous months, meaning that cooler weather is still possible.
Article continues below this ad
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has released a monthly outlook that shows above-average temperatures favored across Texas during April.
Climate Prediction Center
The outlook shows that San Antonio has a 42% chance of above-average temperatures during March, a 33% chance of near-average temps, and a 25% chance of below-average temps. So while above-average temps are still favored, there is still a 1-in-4 chance of cooler weather than average.
In fact, weather models are suggesting that below-average temps are likely for much of South Texas during the first part of the month, particularly during the week of April 4-10. After that, however, near to above-average temperatures are expected through the middle and second half of April.
By the end of the month, long-range weather models depict that San Antonio’s monthly average temperature will likely be near or just slightly above the climate-normal.
Article continues below this ad
Shown are the potential rainfall totals across Texas during April, as depicted by the ECMWF ensemble weather model.
WeatherBell
The northern half of Texas is more likely to see above-average temperatures during April. Long-range ensembles suggest that temps will be 1 to 4 degrees above average, from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex to the Panhandle.
Weather models are also suggesting above-average precipitation throughout the region, as a fairly active weather pattern is expected to bring consistent chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Article continues below this ad
April also marks a time where the chances of severe thunderstorms will rise, including the threat of large hail and tornadoes. Stay updated throughout the spring with the latest severe weather threats at expressnews.com/weather.