Meghan Townsley provides her preview, prediction, and pick for Friday’s women’s college basketball Final Four game between Texas and UCLA.

We’ve reached the semifinal of the Women’s NCAA Tournament, and it’s all No. 1 seeds still standing. On Friday, two of the most talented teams in March Madness meet with a trip to the national title game on the line. No. 1 Texas takes on No. 1 UCLA, with the Longhorns entering as 1.5-point favorites and the total set at 134.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Friday’s Final Four matchup, tipping off at 9:30 p.m. ET.

Texas vs. UCLA prediction

Tonight’s matchup is shaping up to be a tight one. Both teams come in with 35 wins and a clear star leading the way, with Texas leaning on Madison Booker, who’s averaging 19.3 points and 6.7 rebounds, and UCLA built around 6’7” center Lauren Betts, who’s putting up 17.2 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.

Starting with Texas, they’re coming off a dominant Elite Eight performance against Michigan, winning 77-41 in a game that was never really close. Booker led the way with 19 points and seven rebounds in just 29 minutes, while Justice Carlton, Breya Cunningham, and Kyla Oldacre all reached double figures. Oldacre was especially impactful off the bench with a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double. Even though Texas struggled from three, shooting just 16%, their defense more than made up for it. They held Michigan to 23% shooting from the field and 2-of-15 from deep, forced 11 steals, and turned those into 19 points. They also controlled the glass, outrebounding Michigan by 17 and dominating points in the paint.

UCLA had a tougher path, trailing Duke at halftime before pulling away for a 70-58 win. Betts once again led the way with 23 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks, continuing what’s been a dominant tournament run. Angela Dugalic added 15 points off the bench, and Kiki Rice contributed on the glass, but the offense as a whole struggled to find rhythm. UCLA shot just 14% from three and was still down midway through the third quarter before a 10-2 run shifted the momentum and allowed them to take control defensively.

This game comes down to how these two stars impact things and how much help they get around them. Betts has been nearly unstoppable during the tournament, averaging 24.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks while shooting over 70% from the field. Booker has been just as important for Texas, averaging 22.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, including a 40-point performance in the Sweet 16.

Texas will likely try to lean into its physicality, control the glass, and make things difficult for Betts inside, while UCLA needs to avoid becoming too one-dimensional offensively. If the Bruins can move the ball and create easier looks instead of forcing everything through Betts, they give themselves a much better shot against a Texas team that’s been overwhelming opponents defensively.

Texas vs. UCLA pick

I’m expecting a close one here. Both teams are battle-tested and have stars who can take over at any point, so it likely comes down to depth and defensive identity deciding who gets to the final. I’m leaning toward Texas, with Madison Booker doing enough to get the Longhorns over the line.

Lean: Texas ML

Best Bet: Texas -1.5 (-115)