Keagan Smith gives you a preview, prediction and pick for today’s game between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers on Monday’s MLB slate.
We’re officially entering the third week of the MLB season, meaning we’re beginning to see statistical blips turn into trends as the sport’s pecking order comes into full focus. There’s an AL West showdown on deck for Monday night as the Texas Rangers (4-5) and Seattle Mariners (4-6) meet at T-Mobile Park for game one of this three-night set. With these rivals set to square off, there’s plenty of good baseball in store this Monday.
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Rangers matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Rangers prediction, preview
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are supposed to be one of the best teams in the entire sport, but they haven’t looked like it just yet. They won their opening series but have dropped two since to the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels, only one of which is truly excusable. There’s hope beyond just saying that it’s early, though. While Seattle has an OPS of just .631 and the third-lowest AVG at .198, the team still averages 3.70 runs per game. That scoring mark isn’t great, but it could certainly be a lot worse and the Mariners still have an OBP of .302, so they’re not the worst in the sport there. They’ve hit nine homers and are fifth in barrel rate, though they’re second-to-last in hard hit rate and average exit velo. Still, a BB/K of 0.41 is perfectly fine, so the bats should find more juice eventually. That’s especially true with Josh Naylor, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez all at an OBP of .250 or lower. The arms are dealing, producing the fourth-best ERA at 2.72 and second-best WHIP at 0.94. Seattle is also third in K% and first in BB%, so there’s plenty of reason for optimism.
Texas Rangers
Perhaps the Rangers aren’t ready to take over the division just yet. After winning their first two series of the season, they were swept in the opening homestand by the Cincinnati Reds and have now lost four straight games. That’s quite the bummer for momentum heading into the first series of the year against a division opponent, but it’s never too late to shake off this little slump. Texas averages 4.00 runs per game and has a respectable .690 OPS, slashing .237/.299/.391 to get there. While 10th in ISO at .155 and having belted 10 homers while leading the ML with a 46.7% hard hit rate and 90.9 mph average exit velocity, the scoring outputs just haven’t been all that impressive for this roster. Perhaps the second-worst BB/K ratio at 0.29 is to blame for that. The good news is that the pitchers haven’t been bad by any means, logging a 3.60 ERA and 1.23 WHIP to go along with a 19.1% K-BB%. The Rangers are one of nine teams with a double-digit K/9 mark as well.
Tonight’s starting pitchers
There’s a fantastic pitcher’s duel on tap here as Logan Gilbert and Jacob deGrom battle.
For the Mariners, RHP Logan Gilbert makes his second start, He allowed three earned runs in his first outing and five in his second, making for an elevated 6.75 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. However, we saw just how effective he can be over the last couple of seasons and had a 3.44 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in 2025, striking out 173 hitters in 131 IP. This slow start seems like a blip.
The Rangers give the ball to deGrom, the fireballing RHP who opened his season with an atypical performance of three earned runs on six allowed hits and a homer, though he struck out seven batters in that one. Last year, he delivered a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 185 punchouts in 172.2 IP, finishing with a 98th-percentile grade in pitching run value.
Mariners vs. Rangers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rangers as -118 ML favorites, though the Mariners aren’t far behind at -102 odds. The run total sits at eight combined runs between these sides.
Best Bet: Over 18.5 combined strikeouts (-125)
There’s a ton of reason to feel bullish about the over on combined strikeouts tonight. First off, look at these pitchers! Sure, Gilbert stunk in his first two outings, but he’s been elite in recent years and a pair of poor starts to begin the season means essentially nothing at this point. deGrom is a horse when healthy, so we should see both of these guys largely pick apart struggling offenses. They had respective K% grades in the 94th and 83rd percentile last season… which certainly matters against these lineups. The Rangers are 10th worst in K% at the plate at 26.4%; the Mariners are seventh worst with a 27.1% mark. When you do the math here, it adds up to early whiffs and over 18.5 strikeouts.