After a fairly warm and dry winter, a “Super El Niño” could spell rainy seasons later in 2026 for Texas. There’s debate just how warm ocean surfaces will stay as the Northern Hemisphere shifts towards fall, but will a strong (possibly record breaking) heat up on the water become a drought ender?

In a nutshell, an El Niño means a cooler and wetter fall and winter season for Texas as warmer ocean waters impacts atmospheric conditions. Already, meteorologists and climatologists are forecasting a very strong El Niño beginning in late spring and lasting through the end of the year.

But whether or not this will be a record-setting system is still unclear, so whether it will cut back the years of drought accumulation in Texas is also a mystery.

“One good year of won’t eliminate 6 years of water deficit unless it’s exceptionally wet, like in 1957-58,” the National Integrated Drought Information System warns. “Those years also saw historic floods that led to fatalities and devastating destruction.”

The Southwest and Southern Plains have been deemed under drought conditions for almost six years, meaning it’s going to take a lot of rain that actually seeps into aquifers to reverse the lasting impacts. What’s often not realized is that quick rounds of heavy rainfall are not enough to replenish these underground, or above ground, water sources due to runoff – soaked soil stops absorbing as much water which feeds aquifers.

Many days of decent rainfall over long periods of time would be needed to make a serious dent in the consequences of prolonged drought. Plus, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the Southern Plains need heavy winter snowpack on the tips of mountains upstream from the Rio Grande and Pecos rivers to stave off drought.

“Given the poor existing snowpack in this region, current runoff forecasts are below normal,” the NIDIS notes when warning this “Super El Niño” may not be the drought reverser folks are hoping for.

While this strong El Niño is slated to develop in May, it’s largest impacts will likely come later in the year. Currently, there’s a 62% chance of development, according to the National Weather Service.